3.35 Cheltenham Conditional Jockeys race 2m5f Bobt

I love this race. Cheltenham and Amateurs make for Spectacle and looking at the trends you can see the results can be big rewards for outsiders Henderson has the favourite at time of posting and he has won the last two runnings  6 yr olds hold the best record  with 5yr olds next and 2 4yr olds winning in ten years Henderson is the man for taking a horse there for the first time but  only 1 fav and one Jfav has won in the last 10 years. weights seem to favour those running off 11stone plus but light weights on soft ground have an uncanny way of getting in at big prices so not a particularly good race for the top of the market long layoff is no worry but previous run under an amateur around the track is a very positive marker 

So the race pointer to me is Amore Mio trained by RT Phillip under S Odonavan (5) this horse runs well fresh has proven track record as a front runner  my notebook  Cheltenham 151109  214 Dsr 2m5f  soft with Miss lavelle 20/1 looked the winner Amore Mio was allowed to dominate, as he likes to, and looked set to take some catching when clear approaching two out. However, he lost momentum when making a slight mistake at that hurdle and was eventually reeled in. This was the longest trip he had tried to date, but he didn´t fail through a lack of stamina and may even get further in time. When the ground gets really soft, he should take some pegging back in a similar event. 

Phillip's has no great form this track in fact he hardly ever comes here Amore Mio would prefer softer ground that's true  but has performed well on decent ground like today lay off of 236 days is fine

 33/1 currently is a steal for place money - a triple Flat winner in Germany who improved markedly on his hurdles debut when finishing second to  Triumph Hurdle favourite Zaynar(1/5)at Ascot on good ground.

result - Aegean Dawn simply hacked up 

 won like a handicap good thing (Henderson now three on the trot this race)

Pipe horse went so well from the front and my selection went so far out in the betting was never expected and ran as such! 

Cheltenham condition jocks handicap good thing favvy 121110
1st  17.   Aegean Dawn  2.85  2.50

2nd  11.   Dynaste (FR)  48.45  21

3rd  14.   Entertain Me  72.96  34

4th  2.   Sound Stage  13.74  12

 here are the ten year trends

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY
2009	Lord Ragnar	6	11-1	11/1	N J Henderson	Richard Killoran
2008	Andytown	5	11-4	11/4F	N J Henderson	Felix De Giles
2007	Newton Bridge	6	10-8	11/1	Gordon Elliott	J P Elliott
2006	After Midnight	4	9-13	9/2J	A J Martin	R C Colgan
2005	Water King	6	10-12	50/1	R M Stronge	S P Walsh
2004	Hordago	4	9-10	33/1	E McNamara	B C Byrnes
2003	Icare D'Oudairies	7	9-12	33/1	C L Tizzard	Keiran Burke
2002	Jurancon II	5	11-12	20/1	M C Pipe	Gerry Supple
2001	Sharon's Touch	6	11-1	20/1	L J Archdeacon	Mr R Flavin
2000	Joe Crump	6	10-4	8/1	J Mackie	John McNamara