The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes tomorrow Saturday 13th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s November meeting. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander in recent years.
The ground was going Good to soft at the end of Friday with no further rain forecast
Blue Positive Red negative purple Place chances Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6 & 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-12-66) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-13-90).None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to have run in the past 10 years have made the frame.
Country origin Cheltenham 2005 - 2009 - November - 89 races in total
(IRE) Bred - 53 winners (60% of races)
Strike rate - 53/544 - 10% S/R - LSP -£184.92
(FR) Bred - 18 winners (20% of races)
Strike rate - 18/224 - 8% S/R - LSP -£98.01
(GB) Bred - 9 winners (10% of races)
Strike rate - 9/247 - 4% S/R - LSP -£152.38
(GER) Bred - 7 winners (8% of races)
Strike rate - 7/36 - 19% S/R - LSP +£22.08
(USA) Bred - 2 winners (2% of races)
Strike rate - 2/36 - 6% S/R - LSP +£17.20
Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 8-8-68
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 2-16-88 Higher weights hold the call in this with 8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. Top Weight: 594504FPP6 (0-1-10)
Official Ratings
5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher and they accounted for approximately 31.4% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 6 had run in 2 or less)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
7 of 10 winners (last 4) were second season chasers
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season)
5 of 10 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out Great Endevour /Long Run/Edgbriar/Pigeon Island/Gwanko/Passato (Ger)
Other Races
zeturf.com Handicap Chase (Edgbriar): 1F43F2 (1-3-6)
Boylesports Gold Cup winner (Poquelin): 12 (1-1-2)
Carlisle Intermediate Chase winner (Little Josh ): 1 (1-0-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Tchios Polos): 20 (0-1-2)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Great Endeavour): 477PP (0-0-5)
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival
Great endeavour (Bryn Group chase 1st) also ran (Sunny Hill Boy2nd) Gwanko 5th) The Sawyer 9th). RSA Chase Long Run 3rd and lil Josh 6th) Arkle chase – Mad Max 4th – Grand Annual Pigeon Island 1st)
2 of 10 winners ran in Jewson Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 16
(Door Boy Fell in the Jewson Awesome George – Pulled up)
(Finger on the Pulse won the Jewson in 2008)
2 of 10 winners ran in 2M 4½F Novice Chase at this meeting, finishing 31
(Poquelen was second in the paddy Power to Tranquil Sea in this race last year and is the only runner who went in it!)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Boylesports Gold Cup, finishing 1F
Poquelin won the 2009 Boylesport and Gwanko 33/1 blundered badly and never recovered)
Trainers
The Pipe stable (5-3-15) have accounted for 5 of the last 10 winners of the race but all 5 were under Martin Pipe’s tenure and David Pipe (0-1-7) has only saddled one placed finisher from 7 representatives.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-12), Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-5) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-10), and Eddie O’Grady Runs Catch Me (1-0-1) have each trained the winner of the race in the last 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-4-15) has yet to train the winner of this but has come close with 4 seconds in past decade. Philip Hobbs (0-3-8) has had two seconds and two thirds in the period while Il Duce provided Alan King (0-2-4) with 2 places.
Irish based trainers (1-1-15) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win last year, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980. That does not mean they are not fielding a good set of animals in this race
Price
7 of 10 winners have come from the first 3 in the betting Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 renewals and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 15.75. Again this market changes rapidly near the off and the top of the market gets some swift changes in the hour before the race
Summary: looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7- Carrying 10-13+ Having first or second run of the season - - Won a chase at Cheltenham - Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F Previously run less than 10 times over fences - Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases- Second season chaser - Ran in a chase at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival - From the first 3 in the betting (especially the favourite)
YEAR | WINNER | AGE | WGT | SP | TRAINER | JOCKEY | ||||||
7 | 10-13 | 11/2F | ||||||||||
7 | 10-7 | 13/2 | ||||||||||
7 | 10-13 | 13/2 | ||||||||||
6 | 11-2 | 16/1 | ||||||||||
7 | 11-7 | 9/2F | ||||||||||
6 | 10-2 | 12/1 | ||||||||||
7 | 10-13 | 3/1F | ||||||||||
9 | 11-9 | 16/1 | ||||||||||
8 | 11-3 | 9/4F | ||||||||||
6 | 10-13 | 5/1F | ||||||||||
Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 8-8-68
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 2-16-88
Top Weight: 594504FPP6 (0-1-10)
Despite everything else there has not been a 5 year old winner in 10 years
And its not because they were not fancied (Granite Jack went off at 3/1F) was making his debut over British fences from a mark that was potentially so lenient that he scraped into the race only by the skin of his teeth. knuckled over on landing two out. At the time he was upsides Crozan at the head of affairs and travelling like a winner.
Todays hot Favourite Long Run is a 5 yr old that has not won this distance has a lot of ticks in the right boxes apart from age - even though only 1 run here over 3miles in the RSA not even sure you can start to compare the tracks he’s won at – as they are either right handed or lesser fences (certainly had no probs pinging the equally hard fences at Kempton.) UPHELD THE STATS FOR 5 YR OLDS HAVING TOO BIG A TASK AT THIS RACE
Last year was on soft ground and Tranquil Sea (who remains in cracking form this year!) won by an impressive 4.5L from the forgotten horse today Poquelin, into the race on the back of an impressive success at the course the previous month, his first victory over 2m4f, and for which he was raised 11lb. Given a patient ride, as now seems usual, he finished well from an unpromising position but was never going to get into a place where he could challenge for victory. However, this was another step forward in form for him, and he would have been much more of a danger to the winner had he been closer when the pace increased. The trainer reported that his horse hated the ground. Today has top weight and is the class act – running against Monet Garden at Aintree last run recorded a mark of 163 and runs off 164 today
FINISHING POSITION 5TH TOP WEIGHT YET AGAIN BEING GIVEN TOO MUCH TO DO
FINISHING POSITION 5TH TOP WEIGHT YET AGAIN BEING GIVEN TOO MUCH TO DO
The horse that appeals within the framework of past winners but has no great form left handed is Tchico Polos has won left handed only once in its life Very useful front-running novice last season winning over 2m and placed at 2m4f; showed he does not have to lead when returning as good as ever for battling Grade 2 handicap win at Exeter (2m1f); penalty makes him handicapped up to his best and additional concerns with a rare appearance going left-handed (unraced here) and step back up in trip. Has that fav of mine Noel Fehily in the plate. (FELL) NEVER BACK THIS LEFT HANDED AGAIN
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RESULT GROUND WENT VERY STICKY AND THE TIMES WERE SLOW
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RESULT GROUND WENT VERY STICKY AND THE TIMES WERE SLOW
1 Little Josh 20/1 2 Dancing Tornado 20/1 3 Long Run 2/1F 4 Mad Max 15/2
NR: Gonebeyondrecall (IRE), Rory Boy(USA)
18 ran Distances: 2¾l, 2l, 12l
TIME 5m 12.26s (slow by 12.26s)
TIME 5m 12.26s (slow by 12.26s)
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: N A Twiston-Davies
Trainer: N A Twiston-Davies
WIN £22.90 PL £3.60, £4.60, £1.40, £2.00
Ex £732.90
CSF £341.61
TRICAST £1172.27 TRIFECTA £4925.50
Ex £732.90
CSF £341.61
TRICAST £1172.27 TRIFECTA £4925.50
The winner did it well and there were no hard luck stories behind him the winner was a complete dark horse to me but is now in the analyser for rest of the season with good points scored by the second Dancing Tornado
5 comments:
great info as ever Robert here is my take on the race i think mad max has a great chance he won a very good group 2 last time out by 9L has gone well fresh in the past and at around 9-1 i feel is the e/w value long run must have a great chance but at the price is a little short as i feel he will make a few mistakes so i have placed a large e/w bet on mad max and had a saver win on great endeavour good luck today pal
My thoughts......
Very difficult to pick a winner as it's like being a kid in a sweet shop and such a good choice of horse. Based on the trends I think I'll have a go at POQUELIN e/w. Pretty sure it'll be there or there abouts even at top weight. My only concern as I type (11.15am) is the price as it's not being backed yet. But I always say if you've done your research and think it's got a good chance then forget the price and be confident. Small bet though :-)
Also going to have a small place bet on GONEBEYOND RECALL which is 9.6 to place top 4 at the moment on Betfair. I know it's a long shot but Lynch knows how to ride around Cheltenham and the horse is 1st5lbs lighter than it's last run over the same distance, over yielding ground in a class 1 race in Ireland. It did finish second however it's worth noting that there were only 6 in the race. Not suggesting it will win but could be considered to sneak a place at a decent price.
Great work again Bob. Thanks for giving your time up to do this.
Jonathan aka 'The Grasshopper'
Wow Mr T great work as usual - you've given my poor recovering brain a headache just reading it though!! I got my magic pin out and stuck it in The Sawyer and he will be my BTL in this race. I have something very funny to tell you let me know when you are around?
well long run did make a few mistakes [pat on the back for me lol]and mad max 4th for my big e/w bet
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