THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP ---PRE RACE THOUGHTS Bobt

Keep your fingers crossed

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury this Saturday 27th November 3.05

Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase The mighty Denman who won it in 2007 and 2009 is looking to become the first horse to win the race three times. His presence in the race would mean that a maximum of only 8 horses would run off their correct handicap marks. Currently the track is covered to combat the forecast ground frost – they are hopeful – let’s be- it’s the race that will throw up so many good horses

Let’s face it this is the race winners of the best chases from now on come from this race including the Grand national. When Denman won of top weight he was just awesome - to win it twice spectacular. He tore up the trends. Before then we looked at the Charlie Hall as a guide – we looked for horses that had won last time out and we looked for low weight animals with great success. The last 5 years has destroyed that way of looking at the race.

So Saturday will be a test of the trends that have been distorted by a great animal - Denman is looking to become the first ever horse to win three Hennessy Gold Cups. Denman has twice carried top weight to victory and if he runs it is likely that more than half the field will be running from out of the handicap.

 The only previous horse to win back to back running’s was Arkle.

 Are you saying Denman is as good as Arkle ?  I say No 

So why?

 In 50 running’s of this race –

  8 winners (CARRYING 10-00 DEAD)

 10  winners (CARRYING 10-5 T0 10-9)

   6  winners ( carrying 10-9 TO 11-00)

13  winners (CARRYING 11-00 TO 11-05) 

  7  winners (CARRIED MORE THAN 11-08 TO 12-00)    

  4 (CARRIED 12-00 +)

AGE (6 yr olds(10) 7 yr olds(19) 8 yr olds(9) 9 yr olds(9) (10 yr olds(2)   (11 yr olds(1)

 So lets look at the last 10 years  

year	winner	age	wgt	sp	trainer
2009	Denman	9	11-12	11/4F	P F Nicholls
2008	Madison Du Berlais	7	11-4	25/1	D E Pipe
2007	Denman	7	11-12	5/1	P F Nicholls
2006	State Of Play	6	11-4	10/1	Evan Williams
2005	Trabolgan	7	11-12	13/2	N J Henderson
2004	Celestial Gold	6	10-5	9/4F	M C Pipe
2003	Strong Flow	6	11-0	5/1J	P F Nicholls
2002	Gingembre	8	10-13	16/1	Mrs L C Taylor
2001	What's Up Boys	7	10-12	14/1	P J Hobbs
2000	King's Road	7	10-7	7/1	N A Twiston-Davies

Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start

7 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer chases

9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences

7 of 10 winners were second season chasers

still 2 days to keep the snow and frost away - ground was no worse than soft on the  hdles track and G/soft on the chase track - covers going down again as I type!