Start off with yesterdays action and what a farce of a day it was WEDNESDAY RACING REVIEW - An incident packed day featuring a hefty ban for a conditional jockey at Bangor, a Cheltenham hopeful refusing at Huntingdon and a treble for Donald McCain - watch all the action on RPTV http://www.racingpost.com/media/media_centre.sd?view=splash&siteRef=rac-rac-racingpost ( you can also get a preview of the Paddy Power and the Greatwood (Sunday)-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Have put a poll up for the price of the winner for the Paddy Power - Top Right hand side) Cheltenham is scheduled for some heavy rain and what does heavy rain mean punters ?
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here for your delectation - an extract from today's - makes interesting reading
Cheltenham 2005 - 2009 - November - 89 races in total
(IRE) Bred - 53 winners (60% of races)
Strike rate - 53/544 - 10% S/R - LSP -£184.92
(FR) Bred - 18 winners (20% of races)
Strike rate - 18/224 - 8% S/R - LSP -£98.01
(GB) Bred - 9 winners (10% of races)
Strike rate - 9/247 - 4% S/R - LSP -£152.38
(GER) Bred - 7 winners (8% of races)
Strike rate - 7/36 - 19% S/R - LSP +£22.08
(USA) Bred - 2 winners (2% of races)
Strike rate - 2/36 - 6% S/R - LSP +£17.20
Clearly it's the Irish bred runners that rule the November Cheltenham meeting with a huge 60% of the races going their way. Admittedly they also have the huge majority share when it comes to number of runners so from that perspective it's tricky to nail down an actually angle to utilise their superiority.
The only real angle that strikes me from the (IRE) stats is looking at the runners in the lower band of the betting and specifically the runners with an sp of 6/1 or less. In the past five seasons this would have generated 106 bets with 32 winners giving an S/R of 30% and a LSP of +£24.08. Still quite a lot of bets and although the S/R is decent it is quite a time consuming angle.
The stats that interest me most are those of the German Bred runners. They may have only had 7 winners but they have also only had 36 runners, giving an impressive S/R of 19% and a healthy LSP of +£22.08. It seems that a majority of punters are still overlooking those runners with (GER) after their names.
Certainly something for us to ponder over.......
You may also want to consider the following angle for horses to think twice about putting your hard earned on.
(GB) runners at 3m+ 1/59 (2% S/R) LSP -£54.00 This bunch seem to struggle to say the least!
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