The Troytown Handicap Chase takes place at Navan on Sunday 21st November (2.45) and is one of the highlights of Navan’s National Hunt calendar. A grade B handicap chase run over 3 miles it is a very strong trends race with the majority of winners being unexposed chasers prominent in the market.
Trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-15
7yo: 5-6-35
8yo: 3-7-39
9yo: 1-4-30
10yo: 0-2-13
11yo+: 0-0-4
7 & 8 year olds have the best record (combined 8-13-74) which compares well to horses aged 9+ (combined 1-6-47).
The only 6yo to win it in the past 10 years was Cloudy Bays (who had already run 16 times over fences and was clearly well in on the day as he won the Pierse Handicap Chase by 14 lengths off 16lbs higher next time out).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-10+: 1-5-38
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 9-16-86
2008 winner Notre Pere was the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9 and he subsequently won the Welsh National and the grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup. Runs in the Becher chase at 1.45 Aintree - see post)
Top Weight: 4363705534 (0-3-10) has been placed in the last 2 renewals.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 133 or higher: 3-5-27
Horses rated 118 to 132: 6-20-83
Horses rated 97 to 117: 1-6-28
The last 5 winners were officially rated between 118 and 138.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 6F+
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 16 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
8 of 10 winners had run in a graded chase (both exceptions were placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle)
7 of 10 winners had run in the last 30 days
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Navan
Other Races
Castlegar Handicap chase winner (Got Attitude): 33U72U (0-2-6)
Carrickmines Handicap Chase winner (Stewarts House): F (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing 53
2 of 10 winners ran in 3M Novice H'cap Chase here in March, finishing U1
2 of 10 winners ran in the Woodlands Park Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners ran in the PJ Moriarty Novice Chase, finishing F6
5 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in a handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 2P1P3
Trainers
Arthur Moore (2-2-8) has gained 2 wins and 2 seconds from his 8 runners since 2000 (both wins came via Lyreen Wonder). runs a really promising horse in Stewards House
Eddie O’Grady (1-1-3) (Having a Cut) and Tony Martin (1-1-4) Hold The Pin and Lochan lacha have both trained the winner and a placed finisher in the past 10 years.
Willie Mullins (1-0-8) saddled Beroni to win the race last year.Pom Tiepy and Arbor Supreme
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) have come from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the last 10 years has been 10/1
Favourites (3-4-12) have won 3 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 4.33.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7 or 8
- Carrying 10-9 or less
- Officially rated 118 to 138
- Finished in the first 4 on last completed outing
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Won over 2M 6F+
- Course winner
- Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than 1)
- Contested a graded chase
- Second season chaser
- Trained by A Moore, E O’Grady, A Martin
Thoughts - these are very strong trend and could be ready for an upset! Best trends say you should be looking at the market for a mover -
Moskova 17/2 at 7 carrying 11-02 is out of Montjeu and ran a prep hdles last time - likes the ground and trying the distance first time Always behind, pulled up after 5 out
Got Attitude 11/1 at 7 10-06 (Geraghty rides) up in class a super jumper trying distance second time but did all his best work late 2m6f on good ground winning well Tracked leaders on inner, 5th halfway, mistake 7 out, 4th approaching 3 out, no extra after next (op 9/1).
and favourite animal of mine Stewards House (Arthur Moore) 22/1 8 yr old not run for yonks 214 days have taken notes on lots of these and this one shines out its run on soft ground at leopardstown (similar track) was just brilliant and a fine leaper wants all of this distance the shame is the layoff and was running a cracker disputing lead on its only fall here at Navan aftyer a long layoff of 199 days Prominent, 2nd halfway, no extra approaching straight, weakened
RESULT ----JACK THE BUS hasn´t always fulfilled the definite promise he showed as a young horse but chose a good day to do it as he produced a game performance. Held up, he made steady progress on the final circuit and was produced with a well-timed challengeon the outside. He didn´t get his head in front until the final fence and he wasn´t found wanting when asked to battle. The way he was ridden was the key as he didn´t really know he was in a race until they jumped the final fence and the heavy ground was far from a hindrance. This win presumably will mean that he´ll tackle most of the good staying handicap chases over the winter.
Glenquest seems to have been prepared with this race very much in mind and he certainly didn´t let his connections down. He may have been in front long enough, but in his rider´s defence he seemed to have little choice but to go when he did at the third last and maybe with the benefit of hindsight it would have been better to kick him on when he did get there as he appeared to be travelling so well. In the end he fought back well when challenged and ran a cracker. He´s certainly at the proper end of the handicap to win one of these over the winter.
The first two pulled clear in the end of Lochan Lacha, who made reasonable headway from mid-division to chase the leaders into the straight but compared with the first two he was a bit onepaced. He stayed on effectively enough but didn´t have the guns to trouble the first two. He does come across as a horse for whom 3 miles is probably a minimum and this was no different.
Joint top-weight Siegemaster again managed to finish in the placings in one of these races, maybe slightly disappointingly as he might not get too many better opportunities to win one. Racing handily throughout, he just kept staying on at the same pace in the straight and didn´t really threaten. It would seem that carrying big weights in these sort of races will be his foreseeable future.
Pomme Tiepy stayed on from mid-division without threatening, ahead of Noble Concorde, whose jumping wasn´t great at times but he got around and did some reasonable late work.
Got Attitude jumped well in the main and galloped away towards the front rank, looking as though he would play in the hand at the third last before weakening.
Favourite For A Finish got a good patient ride and was starting to make headway before they hit the straight but he could do nothing more once coming under pressure in the straight
RESULT ----JACK THE BUS hasn´t always fulfilled the definite promise he showed as a young horse but chose a good day to do it as he produced a game performance. Held up, he made steady progress on the final circuit and was produced with a well-timed challengeon the outside. He didn´t get his head in front until the final fence and he wasn´t found wanting when asked to battle. The way he was ridden was the key as he didn´t really know he was in a race until they jumped the final fence and the heavy ground was far from a hindrance. This win presumably will mean that he´ll tackle most of the good staying handicap chases over the winter.
Glenquest seems to have been prepared with this race very much in mind and he certainly didn´t let his connections down. He may have been in front long enough, but in his rider´s defence he seemed to have little choice but to go when he did at the third last and maybe with the benefit of hindsight it would have been better to kick him on when he did get there as he appeared to be travelling so well. In the end he fought back well when challenged and ran a cracker. He´s certainly at the proper end of the handicap to win one of these over the winter.
The first two pulled clear in the end of Lochan Lacha, who made reasonable headway from mid-division to chase the leaders into the straight but compared with the first two he was a bit onepaced. He stayed on effectively enough but didn´t have the guns to trouble the first two. He does come across as a horse for whom 3 miles is probably a minimum and this was no different.
Joint top-weight Siegemaster again managed to finish in the placings in one of these races, maybe slightly disappointingly as he might not get too many better opportunities to win one. Racing handily throughout, he just kept staying on at the same pace in the straight and didn´t really threaten. It would seem that carrying big weights in these sort of races will be his foreseeable future.
Pomme Tiepy stayed on from mid-division without threatening, ahead of Noble Concorde, whose jumping wasn´t great at times but he got around and did some reasonable late work.
Got Attitude jumped well in the main and galloped away towards the front rank, looking as though he would play in the hand at the third last before weakening.
Favourite For A Finish got a good patient ride and was starting to make headway before they hit the straight but he could do nothing more once coming under pressure in the straight
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