Well am so far down the table and only 11 days to go this is to be a day for looking for something around the 20/1 mark!
3.55 Ascot and the horse that hold a lot of aces has to be Agean Dawn but this is the sort of race have to go looking for an upset. So what can beat this animal who is reckoned to be 16lbs in hand of its handicap mark? Won well all its races but does look vulnerable (not much but a tad anyway) was nearly brought down at Cheltenham last week and def looks like a horse that does not want to be in front too early. Is 5lbs out of the handicap today such a big horse, it´s hard to believe there isn´t plenty left to work on and, although he can be expected to get hit hard by the handicapper, it would be a surprise were he not to win again. Whatever he does over hurdles, he´ll surely improve on it over fences, his dam being an unraced half-sister to Gold Cup winner Cool Dawn.- That was a conditional jockeys class 3 handicap and makes him a chaser for the future - is bred from the stayer Alflora who's progeny do better chasing and soft ground with decent animals winning right handed track chases)
Will he BOUNCE? that run was with a layoff of 360 days (Cool Dawn never won inside 10 days running and Never ran over hdles) she was much better with a long lay off though she did win round Ascot chases on g/soft with a month or so minimum between races)
Is running in its best race to date and for the first time without a massive lay off - even so the win was impressive and maybe tilting at Windmills to beat him.
So Don Quixotic as I am -- where do I look for the winner at a big price? - Hibiki does hold a lot of promise currently 27/1 on betfair - ran an astonishing race at Ascot last time - bred from Montjeu the ground and distance is ideal (even if the breeding suggests its not its track) - has had a change of stables from Hobbs and first run for Mrs Humphrey ( a change can revitalize a horse quite a bit) he all but collared the winner with a late run that looked devastating as the leader idled -
The race he won before has produced two winners since and Tocca Ferro was 5/2 whilst Hibiki was 14/1 - will not mind the ground g/soft runs well within 20 dsr in cracking form has run to a consistent speed figure in the 120s around here ---
the money will be for Agean Dawn for sure ---there are not enough negatives in its form to suggest it wont win this but there are not many front runners in this race and pace will hopefully not great - Hibiki wins have been up with the pace and late run from between the last two - I hope it will be run in that way and its pace carry it through.
if there is any confidence the price should drop considerably and though have taken 5.5 for the place and 35s for the win - will be looking for a real change by 3pm ---
If it drifts or stays stagnant - will be looking for the 1m5f flat race at 5.45 Wolverhampton and will post later on that animal
If No cigar today will have to draw my horns in and start looking for the 9/1 shots to catch the naps pack
Result
wow that was scintillating by Agean Dawn but equally impressive was mille Chief giving it 17lbs and still swinging along second - no chance but that was a really great performance from the second and an analyser horse - poor lil Habiki I did decide that it was worth a bet and as usual 4th and no cigar - not eve a dog end made a few mistakes and never in the hunt
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