Portland handicap saturday 4th 2.40

The Ladbrokes Portland is the big handicap on the Saturday card of the Leger meeting at Doncaster. Run over 5F 140 yards it is always an enthralling cavalry charge that has thrown up some memorable finishes in the past decade.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	1	3	32
4yo	2	10	53
5yo	3	4	40
6yo	0	6	39
7yo+	4	7	50

Older horses hold a marginal advantage with those aged 7+ winning 4 of the last 8.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-6-39

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-11-88

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-11-83

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-2-14

8 of 10 winners (last 5) carried between 8-12 and 9-6.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 101 or more: 0-6-33

Horses rated 91 to 100: 9-15-126

Horses rated 90 or less: 1-9-55

10 of 10 winners were officially rated between 89 and 100

Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (all 4 exceptions were unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days

10 of 10 winners had won over 5 furlongs

8 of 10 winners had won over 6 furlongs

9 of 9 winners trained in Britain had won at class 2 level or above(Irish trained winner had won a 60-100 handicap)

10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 13K+

6 of 10 winners had contested a group race

Other Races

Japan Racing Assoc Sprint Stakes winner (Masamah): 7100 (1-0-4)

Betfred Be Friendly Handicap winner (Confessional): 68 (0-0-2)

Queensferry Stakes winner (Masamah): 7 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 869008 Senor Peltro aged 7 was third  

5 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 02065 (2 in Stewards Sprint, finishing 41)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Bettingmadeeasy@StanJames.com Stakes (Handicap) at Newmarket, finishing 8006

3 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 484

3 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Dash, finishing 964

2 of 10 winners ran in the Northern Sprint Cup, finishing 08

2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockingham handicap, finishing 55

2 of 10 winners ran in the Skybet Dash, finishing 80

2 of 10 winners ran in the Gosford Sprint Cup, finishing 51

2 of 10 winners ran in S Norton handicap at Sandown last time, finishing 22

Trainers

Kevin Ryan (3-2-16) won the race with Halmahera in 02, 03 & 04 and he also saddled the 2nd and 4th last year.

Stuart Williams (1-1-2) saddled Hogmaneigh to finish 3rd in 06 and win it in 08 and he is looking to win it with Hogmaneigh again this year.

John Quinn (1-1-9) and Tim Etherington (1-0-2) have also both won the race once in the past decade.

Willie Muir (0-2-2) saddled Texas Gold to be placed in the race twice while Michael Jarvis (0-2-2) has had 2 different runners in this since 2000, both placed.

Dandy Nicholls (0-2-29) has a poor record in the race having found just 2 places from 29 runners.

Draw (excluding 2006 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1-7: 1-5-63

Horses drawn 8-14: 3-13-63

Horses drawn 15+: 5-9-69

Horses drawn 15 or higher have won 5 of the last 9 runnings.

Horses drawn in the lowest 7 stalls have only won the race once and filled 5 more places from 63 runners.

Price

8 of 10 winners (including last 7) were priced between 11/1 and 20/1

Favourites (2-1-11) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 or older

·         Carrying 8-12 to 9-6

·         Officially rated 89 to 100

·         Won or placed last time (or unplaced in Great St Wilfrid) 
Quest for Success - Tiddlywinks - Johaans (Senor Peltro finished 3rd)

·         Ran in last 30 days in a class 3 or better

·         Won at class 2 level or higher

·         Won over 5F and 6F

·         Ran in the Great St Wilfrid and/or Stewards Cup/Sprint

·         Drawn in 15 or higher

·         Trained by K Ryan, M Jarvis, S Williams or W Muir

·         Priced between 11/1 and 20/1


 Conclusion and my selection 


Senor Peltro has solid claims on past form and trends - is well drawn in 21 and 14/1 betfair friday night- Sepetmber is the month you want to catch Candy horses  his weight is +2lbs above best weight carrying trend
Poets Place is the favourite but is a lay for me out of the 7 box 10lb higher mark may not stop him but could use some rain.
MassMaah looks booked for the place market winning its last 2 races and Spencer flying but has to carry 9-10 from what is a decent draw and an animal that can accelerate 
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 Post Race Comments
 trends did very little to find the winner in this one either
All the winners of this valuable handicap since 2001 had been officially rated 91 or higher, indeed, six of the last seven won off a mark of at least 95, a trend this year´s victor maintained.

Prior to the off, a heavy but reasonably quick shower of rain hit the course, which possibly eased the ground a bit.

The effect of the draw over the years had been slightly inconclusive, but in this renewal it was a positive to be drawn towards the far-side of the course, where most of the pace seemed to be.
POET´S PLACE, raised 10lb after beating subsequent winner Harry Patch at Haydock, looked to have plenty of improvement still to come when considering his lack of experience, and he delivered again in good style, staying on strongly inside the final furlong to get on top close to the line. He doesn´t look the sort who will be a 5f type, as his record and this race shows, so it makes perfect sense for him to head to the Ayr Gold Cup next weekend, although it´s not difficult to argue that a crack at Group company should be considered if a sensible target can be found.