Cesarewitch trends Saturday 16th Oct

 If this distance race does not get you tingling - your already dead

 Blue are positive trends  Purple are place trends and Red are lay trends

The Totesport.com Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 16th October and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Credit Swap two weeks ago.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-1-23

4yo: 2-7-102

5yo: 1-10-80

6yo: 3-8-55

7yo: 1-2-42

8yo+: 2-2-30

Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-127 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-205).

5 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year, the only non-hurdler aged 6+ to have won this was Sergeant Cecil, who subsequently won at group 1 level.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-0-19

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-61

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-10-74

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 4-6-80

Horses carrying 7-13 or less: 0-9-98 (note that the 10% place stat for the minor placings) 

In recent years higher weights have held the advantage with 5 of the last 7 winners carrying 8-11 or more, though there has been no very strong trend regarding the weights.

Top Weight: 0900000059 (0-0-10)

Record of horses carrying a penalty: 0-4-37

Official Ratings

Horses rated 99 to 107: 1-1-28

Horses rated 86 to 98: 6-12-159

Horses rated 85 or lower: 3-17-145

Horses officially rated 86 to 98 have won 6 of the last 10 (including the last 4) and filled 11 of the 16 places in the last 4 years.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)

9 of 10 winners had not run in the past 4 weeks

9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)

9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps

8 of 10 winners ran at class 2 or higher last time out

8 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts

7 of 10 winners (last 6) finished in the first 4 on their last flat start

7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level

6 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (5 of the 6 had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (2-1-5) has gained 2 winners and a second from his 5 runners in the past 10 years.

Mark Johnston (1-0-14) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000, though his other 13 runners all failed to make the frame.

Jeff Pearce (0-2-2) and Dermot Weld (0-2-3) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers in the past decade.

Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 6 of the last 10 runnings (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs).

Irish-trained runners (1-6-16) have made the frame with 7 of 16 runners, though Tony Martin accounts for the winner and 2 places, and he has no entry in the race this year.

Draw

Horses drawn 1-16: 1-12-160

Horses drawn 17+: 9-18-172

Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn 17 or higher.

7 of the last 9 winners were drawn 23 or higher.( Interesting counter stat of races run over last five years gives a slight advantage to draws 3 7 10 17 22 25 26 27 28 35 - but that is not this race merely the facts of all runs this distance 

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below

Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 but the other 9 winners since 2000 were all priced 16/1 or below and came from the first 7 in the betting.

Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Racing Style

9 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division

This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there. ( in running punters should look for a lay early -

hold up horses should be looked at with an in running eye

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 
  or hurdles runner aged 6+
• Not carrying a penalty
• Officially rated 86 to 98
• Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 2 or higher
• Posted highest RPR in last 2 flat starts
• Run in 12 or fewer flat handicaps
• Won over at least 2 miles
• Won over hurdles (and ran at this years Cheltenham Festival)
• Contested a group or listed race
• Drawn 17 or higher
• Priced 16/1 or below
• Likes to be held up or settled in midfield
• Trained by Nicky Henderson or another NH trainer
  
  
   Conclusion -- saturday Morning ---
   this as always is a head scratcher - Sentry Duty 10/1 Ticks so many boxes its impossible to leave out -especially with Peslier Booked ! for the older horses with flat and NH form it has been trained to the minute for this - Henderson not really getting his act together does not worry me 
  
  
   however  there are at least  7 animals that I could select and that's gotta be a worry for trend backers - here are the others 
  
  
  Oceans Minstrel14/1  - Aim To Prosper 21/1 - Red Cadeaux16/1  - Act Of Kalanisi 49/1 -Gala Evening 47/1 -   and Universal Truth 10/1 - this year could even give a chance to the top weight Bergo 33/1
  
  
   most of them tick many of the boxes -the layoff that seems necessary  and hold up horses - 
  
  
   And an update at 1.12 today sorry  - I love the profile of La Vecchia Scola  and will definitive having a bet on her she is a very good mare indeed!!!
  
  
   so an in running race for me on these and thats the feel of it !