Champion Stakes Saturday 16th October

The Emirates Airline Champion Stakes will be the highlight for many on Saturday's top quality Newmarket card which also features the Dewhurst and the Cesarewitch. A group 1 run over a mile and a quarter, it was won last year by Twice Over, who is attempting to be the first horse since Alborada (in 1999) to win back to back renewals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

3yo: 5-8-53

4yo: 4-6-41

5yo+: 1-6-27

There's little to choose between 3yos and 4yos in this. They have accounted for 9 of the last 10 winners (and 18 of the last 20).

Gender - no Fillies today

Fillies and mares (1-3-16) have gained 1 win in the past 10 years from approximately 13.2% of the total runners. However it has been the older brigade that have done better with 4yo+ (1-2-9) accounting for the win and 2 of the 3 places  

the 3yo fillies (0-1-7) gaining just 1 place from 7 runners. Look  for a filly that fulfils the rest of the stats for an angle to this race  

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (1 exception had never run over the trip & other was runner-up in group 1's on both previous runs over 1M 2F) (NOT Poets Voice 6flngs only and Fuisse on ever run a mile)

8 of 10 winners had finished in the first two a group 1 (all)

8 of 10 winners had previously won or placed at the track (2 exceptions were having first start at Newmarket) Wigmore Hall - Twice Over - Sri Petra -Poets voice)

6 of 10 winners won last time out (3 of 4 exceptions were runner-up in a group 1 last time out) this only excludes Wigmore Hall - 2nd in a group 2 - Debussy -Glass Harmonium -Twice Over 3rd) 

5 of 5 winners aged 3 had won a group or listed race as a 2yo Poets Voice , Alwary and Wigmore Hall all fill this stat

Other races

Prix Eugene Adam winner (Shimraan): 02 (0-1-2)

Oaks winner (Snow Fairy): 43 (0-1-2)

Gordon Richard Stakes winner (Glass Harmonium): 53 (0-1-2)

Huxley Stakes winner (Debussy): 3600 (0-1-4)

Celebration Mile winner (Poet's Voice): 07 (0-0-2)

Earl Of Sefton Stakes winner (Sri Putra): 68 (0-0-2)

Eclipse winner (Twice Over): 546 (0-0-3)

4 of 4 British-trained 3yo winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 8102

2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 27

2 of 10 winners ran in the Select Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Rose Of Lancaster, finishing 12

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven Stakes, finishing 31

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 31

Trainers

Michael Stoute (1-3-16) won the race in 2000 and has saddled a placed runner in 3 of the last 5 seasons.

Alain Royal-Dupre (1-1-3) saddled Pride to finish 2nd and 1st in consecutive seasons.

Henry Cecil (1-1-6) is looking to win the race for a second successive year with Twice Over. Michael Jarvis (1-0-2) has also saddled the winner in the past decade.

Surprisingly neither Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-14) nor Aidan OBrien (0-1-12) have ever saddled the winner of this race.

French based trainers (2-4-15) have done well, gaining 2 wins and 4 places from approximately 12.4% of the total runners.

Price

Not a strong trends race on prices with winners varying from 6/5 to 25/1.

Favourites (2-3-10) have a poor record having won just 2 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 3.80.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 3 or 4 (3yo ran in 2000 Guineas and won group/listed at 2)
• Run 4 to 6 times this season
• Won last time out (or 2nd in a group 1)
• Won over 1M 2F- Not Poets Voice or Sri Petra only at a mile!
• Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
• Won or placed at Newmarket - see above 
• Trained in France - Peslier is one of the  top Jockey's in the world and rides Vision D'etat -- has a formidable speed figures - quote by trainer on winning at ascot -Of all the winners I have had in the world this is the best one. I knew it was going to be difficult but Olivier knew the track very well and the race panned out as I had hoped. One of the reasons we came here was to get a faster pace. I always knew he would finish strongly."
  
  
   Purely on current form of Trainers it would be close between Poets Voice and Sri Petra
  
  
   Conclusion
  Vision D'etat should win this ticks al or most of the boxes EXCEPT for its age at Five and that tempers my bet to small back to lay 
  
  People who read my blog know i always put a bet on Dettori when hes riding off this mark and today will be no exception - ticks a lot of boxes  Poets Voice! and the weight is a big plus will go with it on the basis that a colt by Dubawi will stay this distance and on paper there is nothing to say he wont get it today  will stay in training next year
  
  
  Wigmore hall hasn't got its ground but is a really good Newmarket horse and ticks too many boxes to leave out of the place market at the current 21s
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  Pam Tip - Number 5 Glass Harmonium - well drawn and has an advantage of running with a layoff of 122 days loves track and ground 20/1 is her each way fancy. This is the first time Pam(Nursey) Tip has been offered for the blog 
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   good luck your fancy its a great race -