first my notebook on last years race - paddys pub munster national limerick 111009 11-07 btm 9-11weight 3miles gd ground backed it 20/1 such a big run at 20/1 third my forum notes paddy pub -- this one has a really decent appeal off this weight and i have him as the improver in the field is rated 15lbs higher than his last win by the handicapper but i rate him just 2lbs below that mark anyway. front runner with enough experience to make a real fist of winning this at betfair 20/1 is only 6 will improve again and again analyser
paddy power 271209 backed and napped 4th prominent throughout, slight mistake 9th, led from 4 out, headed into straight, no impression under pressure and kept on same pace from last
today - has got the same ground and off a featherweight again at 10-06 more importantly has another year on its side at 7 yrs old - its mark is highly achievable look at the 103k race over 3miles at leopardstown g/sft achieved a mark of 132 and runs off 133 today and that race came off the back of a hdles attempt.
ran in a hldes race last time-- this horse has all the profile of an upwards curve and cannot be left out of calculations
looking at the trends - oscar looby has a lot ticked off - is a bit of an indifferent jumper - but mouse morris is the man for these scraps and tilts in favour of an in running bet to me
you have to be impressed with mccoys mount dancing tornado last run but is outside the frame of the age profile at 9 and cannot have it on its form line this distance it was staying on last time on good ground but is a small lay for me - is not a fluent jumper and needs to be at todays pace
joker in the pack has to be the current reserve king ali who gets in off a joke mark of 125 -- has easily achieved this and but for unseating last time would be in this race -- if it gets in --- have already asked for a price on it --
whatever you are on enjoy this race and if mines not in front - good luck
bob
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post race comments
GOLDEN KITE made most for a narrow win, his fifth over fences and by far his most significant.
Well-suited by the ground conditions, he led and disputed and dug deep under a fine ride to just shade the verdict. He had finished in rear in the KerryNational on his previous start, something trainer Adrian Maguire attributed to the eight-year-old becoming detached after being hampered by a couple of fallers in the early part of that race.
Fisher Bridge was trying a new trip and was also takingon experienced handicappers for the first time having raced in novice handicaps a few times in the past. Once successful over fences but a three-time winner on the Flat and over hurdles, he was close to the leaders all the way and went second before 2 out. Confidently ridden, he looked to be travelling better than the winner before and after the final fence and while he stayed on quite well towards the finish he was just held.
Tinakellylad performed creditably considering the ground was on the quick side for him. He kept in touch and after coming under pressure in fifth 2 out, he stayed on without troubling the first two. There is a decent handicap to be won with him when the ground eases.
Duers, with his rider carrying 3lb overweight, had gone up 4lb since finishing second over 2m5f at Roscommon last month, He was driven along to close from before 3 out and kept on steadily without posing a threat.
Montero, dropped 1lb since running seventh in the Kerry National last month, raced close up and went second at the tenth fence. Ridden along after 3 out, he dropped to third before the second last and could make little impression thereafter.
Dancing Tornado had made one costly mistake when second in the Kerry National and his jumping again let him down here. Far from fluent at a few fences, he was struggling at different stages of the race and was getting nowhere from 3 out.
Oscar Looby was another let down by his jumping on ground which was probably too lively for him and was well out of contention when he was pulled up after 3 out.
The Last Derby, having his first run since the Galway Plate in which he finished eight, was never able to get into serious contention.
the trends said that Paddy Pub would have it all to do it also said The Kerry National was the race to take runners out of and that Mead and Morrison were trainers who target the race well --- the trends stood up its a different matter to get the winner ! Dancing Kite won it well from the front was +4lbs on the handicap - only the lay on the fav made me money
hope you did better !
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