Sunday 31 October 2010

Here's just one race with more of my numbers

Here's todays Ayr Race at 5pm - a Flat Handicap over 1m 1f - Grade 6 - going Heavy

I take a ton of data to arrive at the numbers & there are "big" formulas behind each number.

LAKEMAN was the heaviest horse by 1lb, the race was a good race for betting on,

MLW = Most Likely Winner ranking - "3b Q's gen" - is my Master Number, "Race Adj" rates the top horse in every race at 100000 & the remainder of the field adjusted down in proportion (gives me a useful % for later) - "Max" is the best of the "Bests" (a calculation from another angle) CDG is obvious and a memo to me, F/O's is a set of numbers rating Favourites and Outsiders - the best Favourite horse of the day is rated 1000 and the best Outsider rated 50 and these numbers adjust down on the horses and give me an idea of the quality of the race. The numbers reflect a Grade 6 race well.

All the form Speed, Class, Going, Distance, Trainer %, Jockey % etc etc forms part of the formulas and I crunch past performance data into my system. The computer does it all for me now that I have it set up to do what I tell it - all I have to do is wait for the Excel spreadsheet to finish it's calculations.

The Fav in this race wasn't ranked high under F/O's or other numbers, the Winner had a good "Outsider" number for a Grade 6 and was the best of the "Bests"

Hope this helps.................... or are you more confused dear reader.

Catch you tomorrow - I have to get down to Kissimmee and then Ft Lauderdale later in the day


MLWNameFSP3b Q's GenRace AdjMaxBestsCDGF/O's
1LAKEMAN(IRE)            4333001000001 478435
2LA BACOUETTEUSE(FR)     1232400996140 392028
3POKFULHAM(IRE)          2.2529000981570 3904C313
4BROUGHTONS SILK(GB)     1719100939130 236819
5MISSISSIPPIAN(IRE)      1718100934850 243220
6LORDSHIP(IRE)           716500927990 2144C16
7CHARITY FAIR(GB)        2613600915560 155212
8BALANCE ON TIME(IRE)    2610800903560 118410
9MEML(GB)                269300897130 9128
10YOUNG LOCHINVAR(IRE)    267500889410 7046

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