Dubai Dewhurst Stakes Saturday 16th Oct 2010

The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes is the most prestigious juvenile race run in Great Britain. It takes place on the Saturday of the two-day Champions meeting at Newmarket this weekend. The race has been won by an Irish-trained runner in the last 4 years.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

Race for 2yos

 its all about Dosage and breeding - check Bens site and get his newsletter definitely this race

10 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that won as a 2yo & won a group 1

10 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.7F to 11.2F

4 of 10 winners were by a son of or out of a daughter of Sadler's Wells

4 of 10 winners were by Danehill, or by a son or out of a daughter of Danehill

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

8 of 10 winners ran in past 35 days (2 exceptions won the Vintage Stakes last time)

8 of 10 winners had won over 7F (both exceptions won over 6F)

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions had yet to run in a group race)

7 of 10 winners won last time out

6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group 1 (4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Other races

Vintages Stakes winner (King Torus): 011343 (2-2-6)

Solario Stakes winner (Native Khan): 833 (0-2-3)

Coventry Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 2245 (0-2-4)

Anglesey Stakes winner (Dunboyne Express): 62 (0-1-2)

Acomb Stakes winner (Waiter's Dream): 552 (0-1-3)

Superlative Stakes winner (King Torus): 62067 (0-1-5)

Royal Lodge Stakes winner (Frankel): 097 (0-0-3) - that's a pretty poor runs to win ratio

4 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in the National Stakes, finishing 1163

3 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere last time, finishing 136

Trainers

Jim Bolger (3-0-5) has won 3 of the last 4 renewals of this race. Very Interesting as he has the rank outsider 
Glor Na Mara  currently 66/1 --Is NO forlorn chance - Bolger is the top trainer at newmarket -(5yrs 24%)  Manning  5yrs (20%)is the top Jock of the trainers and Jocks in the race  Glor Na Mara  very highly regarded, raced only at Pattern level and showing high-class form when second to Zoffany in Phoenix and to Pathfork (Group 1 winner since)in Futurity Stakes; disappointing last twice, turned over at odds on and then significantly below par on soft latest.

Aidan O'Brien (2-7-25) won the race last year with outsider Beethoven and also saddled Rock Of Gibraltar to win it in 2001. Record of his first string is 1-4-10. Much harder to make a case for the lightly run Roderic O'connor but on the plus side for this 28/1 shot was allowed an amazingly soft lead and took full advantage. His two-and-a-half length victory was by a quickly diminishing margin and in terms of form analysis, this race is probably not worth delving into excessively, certainly where it concerns the winner. All credit though to Seamie Heffernan for his enterprise.

Price

This race is either won by one of the first two in the betting or a big outsider. 

6 of the last 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting while the other 4 winners went off 20/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 33/1.

Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.71.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 8.7F to 11.2F
• By a son of or out of a daughter of Sadler's Wells or Danehill there are only 2 of this line today _ Frankel and Roderic O'connor
• Won last time out and posted highest RPR ( Glor Na Mara  and Waiters Dream) dont match that stat 
• Won over 7F ( Not Dream Ahead -Glor Na Mara)
• Won a group race
• Ran in the National Stakes and/or Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere
• Trained by Jim Bolger or Aidan O'Brien
  
  
   Conclusion --- This looks to be Frankels race on all the stats -  (though winning the last 4 runnings favs are due for an upset?) don't think that's a basis for backing against Frankel at all! 
  
  
  The Darkest Horse has to be Roderic Oconner his best speed puts him 13 points below that of the favourite but has the breeding won its last winner 7flngs and loves the ground  though there is a lull in Aidan O'Brien's form this animal is well overpriced at the current 28s  
  
  
  Glor Na Mara with the trainers but it would obv be small at 66s - record has to be worth a small bet in the place market and would not put you off -
  
  
   Frankie Mount Saamidd has been Supplemented at a cost of £20,000; like his main rivals, comes here with an unblemished record having followed an impressive maiden win by comfortably accounting for a brace of Group winners - Approve and Waiter´s Dream - in Group 2 Champagne Stakes, quickening smartly; very highly regarded by Godolphin 
  
  
   And on Current Trainer form ONLY - this race would be won by Roderic Oconner from Saamidd!
  
  
   Enjoy the race