Munster national Sunday 10th October at Limerick

The Ladbrokes.com Munster National takes place at Limerick 4.35 10th October.
going is forecast as good to yielding and good in places 


Previously run at Cork, it has been run at Limerick since 2001. A handicap chase run over 3 miles, prize money of 90,000 will be up for grabs and this race could see the long awaited return of Mossbank, who won the race back in 2007. is still in at this mornings declarations but there is a puzzle am trying to crack 
 question for our Irish friends --- last year there was an adjustment of weights when the Top weight pulled out in the morning -- Does this still happen?

and the rule on remounting in Ireland --still able too?
cannot find these answers on the net - makes a big difference

 have posed it on a couple of forums and tried to find out to no avail! - perhaps you know.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-3-7

7yo: 3-9-32

8yo: 4-4-30

9yo: 0-6-26

10yo: 2-0-11

11yo+: 0-0-9

Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 8-16-69 compared to horses aged 9+: 2-6-46.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 4-6-32

Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 6-15-83

2 of the last 3 winners have carried 10-11+ and there was only one horse carrying 10-11+ last year, finishing 5th of 16.

Top Weight: 61355F7025 (1-1-10) -- Mossbank 11-10 - hence the question posed above as Michael Hourigan has the probable favvy  Dancing Tornado under Mccoy! 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 130 or higher: 4-7-44

Horses rated 119 to 129: 5-12-48

Horses rated 118 or lower: 1-4-23

In the past 5 years horses officially rated 119 to 129 gained 4 of 5 wins and filled 14 of 17 places.

This makes it tuff for the following animals - Dancing Tornado - The last Derby - Paddy Pub - Montero- Mossbank -Oscar looby - Sartano - Wins Now 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+ only  3  dont get this stat --Dancing Tornado - swift Counsel - and Larkwing (they have won just short of this distance 

8 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days - Mossbank and The last Derby don't figure this stat

8 of 10 winners had run in a graded chase (1 exception had run in listed chase and other exception had run in a grade 2 hurdle)  this includes --Oscar Looby -Dures - Bronte bay Dancing Tornado - Swift Counsel  -Montero -Golden kite - Mossbank  -The last Derby 

8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on one of their last two starts - Royal Blood - Oscar Looby Dures - Bronte Bay Sarteano - Dancing Tornado  Wins Now  

6 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on only previous start here in a handicap chase)

Other Races

Previous season's winner: 22 (0-2-2)

Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Oscar Looby): 9 (0-0-1)

4 of 10 winners had their last start in a chase at the Punchestown Festival -(Mossbank)

3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Irish Grand National, finishing 689

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Troytown, finishing 406

2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing F2 (Dancing Tornado 2nd -Swift Counsel 4th - Montero (7th) Golden Kite (10th) Oscar looby(fell)  you can watch this race for free on ATR

2 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 0B

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Cork National, finishing 62

Trainers

Mouse Morris (2-0-5) has won the race twice in the last 10 years (2001 2003). Tinakellylad

Davy Fitzgerald (1-4-6) won the race in 2006 and has seen 4 of his 5 other runners make the places (one unplaced runner was 6th of 16 last year).

Noel Meade (1-3-10) Oscar Looby Fisher Bridge and Michael Hourigan (1-0-11) Dancing Tornado  Moss bank have also both saddled the winner in the past decade.

Eric McNamara (0-2-4) trained the winner back in 1999 and 2 of his 4 runners in the past 10 years made the frame. Lark Wing

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below

There has been a couple of shocks with a 16/1 and a 20/1 winner in the last 10 years but most of the winners have been prominent in the betting.

Favourites (2-2-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-11+
• Officially rated 119 to 129
• Finished in the first 2 on one of last 2 outings
• Had not run in the last 60 days
• Previously run in a graded chase
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
• Won a chase over 2M 4F+
• Course winner (or having first run at Limerick)
• A second or third season chaser
• Trained by Mouse Morris or Davy Fitzgerald
• Priced 8/1 or below