We had a cracking Thursday night at Wolves let's hope Friday will be another good one, it's AW time again!.
8.20....
On paper this doesn't look a great race.. but there are one or two who do stand out a bit in this field.
Commerce being the prefered choice here. She is a short enough price but I sided with her as I prefer her experience over the other two. Commerce has come over from France where she ran two races (10,3) and improved on her GB debut running a good second on the AW at Lingfield to a handy horse at this level in Blitzed, She also showed the conditions were no problem. This looks a weak enough race to go one better tonight.
No Rain should be the one chasing her home if acting on the surface. The horse was third on debut at Newcastle, making eye catching late headway after being mid pack and stayed on nicely. Could easily improve second time out.
Sennybridge at a price could be involved here. Currently at 25 on betfair could be worth a small e/w shot. Was 50-1 on debut at Sandown and was 5th of 8. Now you might not think thats great but this race looks a lot weaker then that one. I think the second run could bring about improvement.
1.COMMERCE 2.NO RAIN 3.SENNYBRIDGE
8.50....
This is a really tricky race!...Bougatti is the fav and was behind a smart horse lto but Im not totally convinced by this horse.
After scratching my head I am hoping I have found an angle in... Im going to give (very) marginal preference to Papas Fritas. Looking at the runners here and given that Papas likes to front run he could very well get an uncontested lead from the off and could be able to dictate out in front (or at least I hope..) and looks to have a good draw here too. Consitant with three thirds so far and off same mark tonight should give another bold front running show, he also has confirmed AW form.
Holy Mackerel has been a gradual improver with each run (14,5,4,3) and best showing was lto when well backed finishing a close third at Bath. Think there could be more improvement here and Hughes on board a plus.
Now the other one who could go well at a big price (27 on betfair) is Green With Envy. Has been racing over 7f in sellers and has been staying on quiet well on those runs so the extra distance could well help tonight. If not too high in the weights this could be a nice e/w option.
1.PAPAS FRITAS 2.HOLY MACKEREL 3.GREEN WITH ENVY
9.20....
Another tricky race to end the evening with.
Cape Quarter will be my selection here. Has on the whole been very reliable this year you have to forgive the last run as I think the soft ground did little to help and usually gives a good account on the AW. The gap of six days shouldn't be a worry as he was not given a hard ride last time and should be back to better form here.
Bakongo ran a very good third over this course lto and looks a big threat here. But there are a few question marks form had tailed off pretty poorly but if building on that last run could be the one to beat.
Diggeratt should also go well tonight another really game consistant performer but I just feel the handicapper may have this one at the moment up another 3lb for a second lto, I think will be a big chance to be in the placings at least.
1.CAPE QUARTER 2.BAKONGO 3.DIGGERATT
4 comments:
reat write up Nathan - thanks love the chances of the big priced animal Senny Bridge for a place out of that box in 8.20 better pedigree than most - think it must be trying for the place---
8.20 cant agree anything this race and am going tentative place bet on Green with Envy cannot see anything sure fire ---
9-20 again a horrible race and am only going to take a small dip on Beat Up to repeat the win here and hughes for the try! good luck mate
missed this one out - 7.50 am taking a chance with two in this Quinsman who seems to run well here this distance and well handicapped and Akbabend for the place repeating its run here at wolves last year -
well Sennybridge worked well for the place at 5.2 was as massive as I needed to get the AW book green - lost my internet connection at 8pm (good old BT) and only got it back so was unable to put many bets up and therefore probably saved a few bob on the later races --
The fave in the first did as I epected and yes Bob great run from big price Sennybridge. Papas Fritas couldn't quite go from the front all the way but gave a good effort and Cape Quarter came with a good run but looked a bit awkward but still placed. So all the first choices in the last three days have all been placed so least we kept that record up!.
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