The Racing Post Trophy Saturday 23rd October 2010

The Racing Post Trophy, the final group 1 of the British flat season, takes place at Doncaster on  Saturday 23rd October. 


 Ground has remain unchanged - good good to soft in places - overcast 


Recently the race has been a good guide to the following year’s Derby with 3 of the last 9 winners going on to win at Epsom.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age  - Race for 2year olds


Breeding

9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 9.9F to 11.7F (Saville,  Titus Mills. Master of Hounds, Karam Alabar, - Toulain)

7 of 10 winners were by Sadler's Wells, a son of Sadler's Wells or out of a mare by Sadler's Wells (Master of Hounds) 

3 of last 6 winners were by Montjeu ( my personal favourite Sire) but not represented today

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times only Dubwai Gold does not have this stat having run5 times

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception 5th in Dewhurst)

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out -Dunboyn Express Titus mills Native Khan Karam Albaari Seville

9 of 10 winners had their last run in past 40 days Toulain  Dubawi Gold Seville Casamento Kamal Abara(42 days)

8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M (two exceptions were maidens) ONLY THE FAVOURITE has won over a mile this term

3 of 10 winners had won a group race - BUT Previous group form is not an essential as 5 of the last 10 winners had yet to run in a group race.

Other races

Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 223451 (1-2-6)

Acomb Stakes winner (Waiter's Dream): 712 (1-1-3)

Solario Stakes winner (Native Khan): 3086 (0-0-4)

As stated earlier, there are no set pattern races as many winners have come here directly from a maiden win.

Trainers
Brian Meehan (1-3-7) has done really well in this race recently, training the winner and 3rd in 2008, the runner-up in 2006 and ; 2007 and the fourth last year. (Runs Titus Mills)

Aidan O’Brien (3-4-25) has won this race 3 times in the last 10 years and also accounted for 7 of the 26 places. (Runs Master of Hounds - Seville)

Price

Not an overly strong trends race as far as price goes though favourites have done well of late. 7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting but the other 3 winners’ prices varied from 14/1 to 25/1.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 3.08.√

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Sired by horse with a stamina index of 9.9F+
• Sired by son of or out of a daughter of Sadler’s Wells
• Finished in the first 3 last time out & posted highest RPR
• Run in last 40 days
• Won over 7F or 1M
• Run no more than 4 times
• Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Brian Meehan
• Favourites do well
  
  
   Things to ponder on Titus Mills beat home Big Issue at Goodwood - and Native Khan who was as impressive as hell at Newmarket -  under Fallon  beating Baranski  7flngs 070710 drawn red 12  of the two Fallon is on Titus Mills for Meehan
  
  
  Conclusion
  
  
  So I must have a saver on the favourite  Casamento at the current 3/1 based on its win over the mile
  
  
  BUT where is the pace? ---it must be with Master of Hounds for O'Brien who recorded a speed rating of 115 at Tipperary winning eased down by 6l and the choice of Murtagh today -  hardly ticks all the boxes having not run for 104 days but bred from Sadlers Wells mare and the dark horse in the race - has been brought along slowly and O'Brien strike rate 0-29 2yr olds makes the price too big for me
  
  
  Am with these two in the forecast and a sneaky bet on Fallons ride Titus Mills
  
  
   good luck all - please leave your comments and selections and why!
  
  
   Bob T
  
  
   RACE Result ---
  
  
  well the trends stood up well with the favourite scooting away -How impressed were you ? - the way the race was run I would say the form is STRONG - did not really get going until the 3 flngs pole and that's indicative of more to come from the front three at least - 
  
  
  CASAMENTO, who was supplemented for the race, made it three wins from four career outings with a game display on his return to the top level, completing the task witha fair amount left in the tank, and gave his trainer a first winner in class. He didn´t need to his best when coming home a clear-cut winner in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes over this trip at the Curragh in September - the same race that last year´s stunning winner St Nicholas Abbey landed before coming here - and his short-head defeat to the unbeaten Pathfork in the National Stakes over 7f at the same venue earlier that month made him the clear form pick in this field. Frankie Dettori was aboard for thisBritish debut and he delivered him to lead nearing 2f out. SEVILLE threw down a strong challenge at the furlong marker and looked a big danger, but the winner was probably idling somewhat as he picked up again to assert his authority nearing the finish.
  Aidan O´Brien had been responsible for five winners of the race since 2007 and he saddled two this season in Seville and Master Of Hounds. Both had scored on their previous outings, but next year trends will have to pick up on this fact - they were the only runners  that had yet to race in Pattern company. ok one swallow does not make a summer but will highlite that next year -  It was the supposed second-string Seville that came out on top of the pair and he was the only one to give the winner a serious race. He arrived here having taken the same conditions race at Tipperary last month that High Chaparral won before landing this in 2001, and was open to any amount of improvement. He was never far away through the early parts and raced more towards the near side. He responded strongly to pressure from 2f out and momentarily looked like getting on top, but the winner always just had his measure inside the final half furlong. He still looked a little green and his pedigree strongly suggests stepping up to around 1m4f will suit him next term he has been cut as short as 10/1 (Ladbrokes) for the Derby.
  
  
  Master Of Hounds, the pick of Johnny Murtagh, was having his first run since landing his maiden at the fourth time of asking back in July. This was obviously a big step up, but he was very closely matched with the unbeaten Dunboyne Express and there was a good chance the extra distance would help him. He stayed on without ever really threatening the first pair and left the impression more of a test would´ve seen him in a better light. The ground was also probably easy enough for his liking and he should make up into very nice horse at around 1m2f next term, but he wouldn´t be certain to get further than that.
  
  
   of the others - Native Khan made it 2-2 when readily winning the Group 3 Solario Stakes and bypassed last week´s Dewhurst for this. He had something to prove on the slower surface, but his sire´s progeny do have a decent record on soft ground and he went through it without that much fuss. Indeed he was another that shaped as though a stronger early pace would´ve been more to his liking over this extra furlong and he remains adecent prospect.
  Well done on the comment by Jiggan  - regarding the Murtagh cast off statistic :- ( Based on your info and trying to narrow it down I like the look of Seville for an e/w bet today. It might not be O'Brien's 'top horse' as I read that Murtagh turned it down but how many times has a '2nd choice' horse come out on top?)---
  Seville looks the one to take out of the race and Johnny got it wrong again!
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  1 Casamento 2/1F 
  2 Seville 8/1
  3 Master Of Hounds 15/2 

  10 ran Distances: ¾l, 2l, ¾l
  TIME 1m 37.03s (fast by 1.47s)

  Jockey: Frankie Dettori
  Trainer: M Halford

   WIN £2.00 PL £1.10, £2.80, £2.50     
  
  

  Ex £21.40

  
  
  Oh yes one more thing - 
  
  
  

  Dubawi Gold as suggested by the trends of running too many times  - found this too hot and he failed to last home from the front on this further step up in distance.