WOW! What a feast of racing today at Newmarket! I don't know where to start - oh yes I do! I am taking no notice of stats/trends today. It's form, form and more form. Thanks to Bob and channel 4 for the weather/going updates... It was interesting to hear Jim McGraths comments on the Dewhurst. Apparently, Dream Ahead has a timeform rating that would have been good enough to win the last 5 renewals, yet he thinks Frankel will win! Three wins from three, the last two by 10 lengths and 13 lengths (impressively and very easily) won the Royal Lodge (a group 1) by 10 lengths!! Has recorded a much better speed figure than Dream Ahead and Saamidd. It doesn't matter if you like speed figures or not, the simple FACT is that the fastest horse wins the race - every time! Forget hard luck stories (on the day) the fastest horse wins every race (discounting those that win in stewards room). I will add however, Frankel is NOT a value bet, far from it! I don't back odds-on, ever, but, if this goes evens (or better) I will be in, like a flash (I have amounts and odds over 2.02 already waiting). That's what I like about the exchanges, you can sometimes get somethings matched, I do use specialised software btw and this allows me to move onto the next race without having to look back until just before the start.
It's very difficult to rate Frankel and Dream Ahead. At least some form has come out of Saamidd's two races. The ease of their wins doesn't help either and it is pure guess work giving them a mark. I think the VFB have it about right and the improvement/scope will be great to watch. O'Brien's horse, Roderic O'Connor is about right though. This hasn't shown Dewhurst winning form. 25's is my tissue price for him.
It should be a fascinating race, but what I don't want is another easy win, because the ratings for next year will be left up in the air!!
2 comments:
Hi Martin - have finished the stats this race and the blog for the Dewhurst trends are now Finalised - hope you do well - but there is a twist in the tail - the stats for this years race show it not to be the open and shut case for Frankle - non of the runners have an overall edge - think the race will be completely tactical--only really developing at the dip!
Good luck
Yes, I had a look at the stats/trends that you put up and as you say, there is nothing with an edge. It's difficult to say which horse really is the best
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