I'll be posting various races during the day so please pop back from time to time. This is my at cutting down meaningless posts - i.e a post for each race, that said, I want that 1000 mark hit by close of play boys and gals.
I'll start with the 4.05 Cheltenham where Cue Cards continues his novice chasing career over its optimum distance of 2 and a half miles. Placed in group class hurdles, Tizzard had a couple of winners the other day after a few weeks in the doldrums. Is bound to be run well after beating Michael Flips, leading all the way at a moderate pace, jumped the stiff Chepstow fences very well (except for 2 that he got too close too), quickened away nicely from 2 out to win by an easy 5 lengths. The form has been franked since, and with Grand Crus in opposition, we get a better price! I like it :) Look for 7/4 or better. This race is significant as in the past it has been won by the mighty Denman and Imperial Commander to name just two.
The annual cross country race is run at 2.20, and I have lost count of how many Grand Champetre has run in, all I think, winning three times (??). Enda Bolger usually runs 3 or 4 in this so the take the hint that this is the only runner. If you shop around you should be able to get 4/5, maybe evens on Betfair later on - there have been a lot worst even money/ 4/5 shots.Nicholls takes it on with Gullible George who simply isn't good enough You want to lay the favourite I'll take all your money!
The 1.45 Cheltenham is a tough 2 mile Handicap Chase where I have two (both BIG prices) that I can't split, so I will dutch them. There is Consigliere who would need some rain IMO and the other is Russian Flag who had a pipe-opener at Wincanton over the smaller obstacles recently. Will strip better for that run and even though a massive price is worthy of anyone's shortlist.
Elsewhere, at Newcastle, the 3.55 is of interest to me as Stan Moore has brought up Arizona River to contest this. The 5 year old mare had one run in a bumper at Wetherby, beaten 8 lengths by Ebanour. That doesn't amount to much, nothing has come out and won, but she started unfancied at 33/1 that day and merely stayed on to get 2nd. Any money for her is worth noting.
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3 comments:
Nice write up martin, i will send you today the systems promised and i just woke up having a coffee and will analyse to share my ideas with you and robert each other. see ya
The 4.05 Cheltenham is tricky to me but I cannot agree with your selection at that price, Cue Card proved nice jumping LTO thats true, but it was a very slow race against poor animals compared to today. Is facing an oldie Zaynar who had good form back in 2009, facing my favourite Grands Crus,when getting a pace and jumping the big fences ( big doubt to me by the way), Champion Court who showed a cracking performance LTO and actually i like Vieno Griego despite the long absence, If Vieno Griego and Champion Court make the pace today then I dont see Cue Card winning, as watching him 2nd LTO in video isnt a strong finisher if there was some speed before. To me is a Lay!
My selections in the 4.05 are Lay Cue Card at 2.5 and a small Back on Vieno Griego at these horrendous odds. I still see Grands Crus winning this, its interesting to see that Grands Crus won a a Hcp Hurdle here last year over 2m5f after the same absence and from class is clearly the best.
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