Saturday, 12 November 2011

Saturday bets!

Going primarly through the 2.35 Cheltenham and watching the videos I found my first selection.

Placelay The GiantBolster 3.5-4.0 BSP

Came to my eye, because it has weak speed figures and I expect a very fast race, actually watching the videos and I have just finished 5 runners, I see a decent pace set up with Wishful Thinking, Mon Parrain, Loosen My Load all making effort from the front. Could be a course record from my view tomorrow maybe.But Im a novice to all this :)
Giant Bolster actually is a horse that cannot go with a fast pace and loosens during half of the race in fast run races his power and cannot go with it, is then open to jumping errors and went 2nd LTO and 3rd LTO in Aintree and Cheltenham Unseated and fell. You could really see, that the horse was not able to go with. Before ran in Novice Chase and his best was a Class 2 Novice Chase, is a poor jumper tending to errors and showed in high class events nothing finished on the hurdles in Class 1 races two times 5th and 6th. Today this horse is facing several high class animals and I cannot see him finsihing in the places. Has a 0-0-4 after this days since run! And never placed with this jockey.

Its really a tight race and its hard to pick one, the fav is def too low odds as Bob said, but still I dont write him off, is a 5 year with room for improvement and the race LTO was at a really good pace. What Im looking for is a horse that moves from the back and finishes strongly and Noble Alan (GER) is a horse that appeals to me, needs the trip and was 2 times really unlucky. In the AP Gold Cup race here in Cheltenham was going well from the back making steady headway against many rivals today and jumped badly in the end. The same last race in Market Rasen, was looking fresh and nicely until stumbled at the last and unseating Brian Harding.Today has Dougie Costello for the first time on Board, a big ? to me.Is it good? or Bad? Im not ajockey expert.
What Im looking for is to Back Noble Alan after the first quarter-half of the race at bigger odds if possible if the horse looks good, as its a horse that has from my analysis really a big chance if getting a run and not falling late. Maybe the new jockey will do the trick.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

2.35 Chelt - Wishfull Thinking is the animal to be on !! I'll have a look at your place lay now mate

Benhorseracing said...

I agree with you Martin, but today im not sure its a strong field really strong and Wishful Thinking makes the running and there are several horses capapble of coming late,thats the reason why Im not tended at that price, but youre right looks strong and if makes today a win from the front is to me a superstar.

Unknown said...

Good Luck with the quality horse Martin - thats what makes racing
as For RADE SELECTION - only the very simplicity of the fall by Noble Alan worries me because its a very good horse indeed - will def be having some thoughts as it runs for a wager its staying ability is without question - just its finishing is the worry

Unknown said...

oh and I think definitely the booking of Costello is the plus with Noble Alan !