The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle is the highlight on Sunday 13th

The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle is the highlight on Sunday  Cheltenham’s November meeting, It is run over 2M 110y and is open to 4yos and upwards. It usually attracts a high class field and recent winners include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim and Menorah last year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-4-26

5yo: 6-8-47

6yo: 1-4-26

7yo: 1-3-12

8yo: 1-3-12

9yo+: 0-1-11

5 year olds have a superb record in this race having won 6 of the last 10 from approximately 35.7% of the total runners. They have also filled 10 of 14 places in past 4 runnings.

The only 4yo winner since 2001 was Detroit City, who had won the Triumph Hurdle and Anniversary 4yo Hurdle. The previous 4yo to win this was South Parade in 1988, he had finished 4th in that year's Triumph Hurdle.

In the past 15 years the only two winners that were aged over 6 were Khyber Kim in 2009 (2nd in Champion Hurdle that season and won grade 1 Aintree Hurdle) and Rooster Booster in 2002 (won Champion Hurdle that season).

Of the four non-5yo winners of this since 2001, 2 were previous grade 1 winners and 2 went on to win grade 1’s latter that same season.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 7-10-70

Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 3-13-64

Preference is for higher weights. 6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-6+.

Top Weight: 011401282031 (4-3-12) has a fine record, having won 4 of the last 10 and filling a place in each of the last 5 years.

Horses carrying a penalty (0-4-6) filled 4 places from 6 runners.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or more: 7-7-36

Horses rated 130 to 139: 3-9-66

Horses rated 129 or less: 1-7-31

Horses officially rated 140+ have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 27% of the total runners.

9 of 10 winners were racing off a career high hurdles mark (though 6 of 10 winners were making their h'cap hurdle debut)

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 on last completed hurdles start

7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last two hurdles runs

7 of 10 winners had their last run in the past 45 days

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers

8 of 10 winners (last 7) ran in no more than 9 times over hurdles

8 of 10 winners (last 7) ran in no more than 5 handicap hurdles

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (last 7 had yet to win a handicap hurdle)

6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) were running in their first handicap hurdle

6 of 10 winners had run on the flat (5 who had run in Britain were rated 94+ on the level, other had only run in France on flat)

3 of 10 winners had won a bumper in Ireland

Since this race became a grade 3 hurdle all 7 winners had run in a listed or graded hurdle on their previous NH start

9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better hurdle (exception was a group 2 winner on the flat)

Other Races but remeber some of these wont be running will delete them for and study after racing on saturday

Bet @bluesq.com Handicap Hurdle winner (Pateese): 22 (0-2-2)

Elite Hurdle winner (Celestial Halo): 3 (0-1-1)

Future Champions Finale Juv H'dl winner (Marsh Warbler): 3 (0-1-1)

Punchestown Champion 4yo Hurdle winner (Grandouet): 2 (0-1-1)

williamhill.com Handicap Hurdle winner (Brampour): 6P (0-0-2)

Download Blue Square App Hurdle winner (Domtaline): 54 (0-0-2)

Top Novice Hurdle winner (Topolski): F950 (0-0-4)

2 of 10 winners ran in Visit williamhill.com Mobile Hurdle, finishing 11

5 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (22nd & 1st in County Hurdle, 13th & 1st Supreme and 1st Triumph)

Trainers

Philip Hobbs (3-0-16) has won 3 of the last 10. All 3 of his winners had won at that year’s Cheltenham Festival and carried top weight.

Gary Moore (1-2-6) and Paul Nicholls (1-2-7) have both saddled the winner and 2 placed finishers in the past 10 years.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-8) saddled Khyber Kim to win it in 2009.

Alan King (0-4-9) has saddled a placed finisher in the last 4 years and none of his 9 runners have finished worse than 6th. Brian Ellison (0-2-5) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers.

Irish based trainers (2-1-18) have won 2 of the last 7 renewals. Both Irish-trained winners were NH bred 5yos that had won a Punchestown Hurdle that year and were having their first run in a handicap hurdle.

Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off at 9/1 or lower

Generally this is a race in which market leaders dominate, with the 33/1 winner in 2003 the only exception. 7 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting.

Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 renewals in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 1.09.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5
• Carrying 10-13+ (top weight does well)
• Officially rated 140+ over hurdles (racing off career high mark)
• Official rated 94+ on the flat (or won an Irish bumper)
• Finished in the first two on last NH start (in graded hurdle)
• Run no more than 9 times over hurdles
• Run in 5 or fewer h'cap hurdles (handicap debutantes favoured)
• Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
• Won a hurdle at class 2 level or better
• Trained by P Hobbs, P Nicholls, A King or Gary Moore
• Priced 9/1 or shorter