In the 13.55 Cheltenham I go with robert and punt Chicago Grey win, its a good price imo as drifted to 7.2 BSP and having another go small stakes in the first half of the race at possible bigger odds as it races far off the pace in the beginning stages and coming really late. I have to agree with robert, looked so strong 2nd LTO in Cheltenham and the 3m3f will be perfect.
Edit: Ran really bad, I backed Inrunning higher odds but wasnt good enough in the end.
Uttoxeter 14.05
Very small on Dr Rock at 44 BSP has Course sire stats and never raced in Britain before but won LTO 2 years in kno ( quoted from patternform, i dont know this racetrack and where it is?) in a 18 runner race.
Edit: Run a good race trading down to 4.5 low but didnt win, i was tempted to trade out around 6.0 but didnt, played small stakes though.
Going primarly through the 2.35 Cheltenham and watching the videos I found my first selection.
Placelay The GiantBolster 3.5-4.0 BSP
Came to my eye, because it has weak speed figures and I expect a very fast race, actually watching the videos and I have just finished 5 runners, I see a decent pace set up with Wishful Thinking, Mon Parrain, Loosen My Load all making effort from the front. Could be a course record from my view tomorrow maybe.But Im a novice to all this :)
Giant Bolster actually is a horse that cannot go with a fast pace and loosens during half of the race in fast run races his power and cannot go with it, is then open to jumping errors and went 2nd LTO and 3rd LTO in Aintree and Cheltenham Unseated and fell. You could really see, that the horse was not able to go with. Before ran in Novice Chase and his best was a Class 2 Novice Chase, is a poor jumper tending to errors and showed in high class events nothing finished on the hurdles in Class 1 races two times 5th and 6th. Today this horse is facing several high class animals and I cannot see him finsihing in the places. Has a 0-0-4 after this days since run! And never placed with this jockey.
Its really a tight race and its hard to pick one, the fav is def too low odds as Bob said, but still I dont write him off, is a 5 year with room for improvement and the race LTO was at a really good pace. What Im looking for is a horse that moves from the back and finishes strongly and Noble Alan (GER) BSP 38 is a horse that appeals to me, needs the trip and was 2 times really unlucky. In the AP Gold Cup race here in Cheltenham was going well from the back making steady headway against many rivals today and jumped badly in the end. The same last race in Market Rasen, was looking fresh and nicely until stumbled at the last and unseating Brian Harding.Today has Dougie Costello for the first time on Board, a big ? to me.Is it good? or Bad? Im not ajockey expert.
What Im looking for is to Back Noble Alan inrunning at 35+after the first quarter-half of the race at bigger odds if possible if the horse looks good, as its a horse that has from my analysis really a big chance if getting a run and not falling late. Maybe the new jockey will do the trick.I will play place 6.8 BSPaswell.
14.55 3m1f Hcp Chase Wetherby
Le Roi Rouge 16.5 BSP and 5.5-6.0 PSP ran LTO a nice race beating Meetthecritics 7.0 BSP Head to Head with 9.25 lenghts over 2m4 in Wetherby finishing strongly after a really long absence. Showed that already fit and is a horse that makes headway. Beat also Wetherby course specialist Dawn Ridge Head to Head 8 lenghts over 2m4f. Today races the 3m and looked on video that this suits him and has ideal days since run after a freat comeback, seems to me in this field is way too overpriced.
Golans Way 40 BSP and 7.8 Place Odds for 4 places is a massive price today in the 15.10 Cheltenham. The Chase Form of this horse is 2nd LTO against 2 hot animals in the scene Sarando and Quito De La Rogue in Aintree 3m1f Grade 2 finishing 3rd very close in a packing race. Both Sarando and Quito De La Rogue went on to win two races, when nobody expected them to win. Quito beat Sizing Europe just to show which horses are involved. Golans Way refused to race LTO 8/1 in Badger Ales Trophy in Wincanton another high class race. This animal is used to much better company on the chase and even has a Cheltenham win. Cannot understand these odds at all and having both Win and Each Way punt.
15.25 Wetherby
Empress Orchid 21 BSP and 5.0 PSP ( 4 places) has today ideal conditions, back to 16f suiting as a frontrunner, Soft Ground see sire data i showed, and is so low in weights, Trainer has great course record and booked A P Lane who has a great course record from 18 races here.
In th 15.40 Cheltenham I cannot agree with robert that Shallow Bay wins this, maybe a place but no win I think, as the perfromances from Capes Dutch and Edgardo Sol were to good from my eye. I will bet Edgardo Sol Win and place to 7.2 and 2.14 Place odds (4 places), as the perfromance LTO against the Cockney Mackem was great the horse finished so strong and the race wasnt slow before.
16.00 Novice Hurdle Wetherby
Bavarian Nordic ran only A.W and Flat races. Has in Dataform a EMR of 122 the best with the second best having 118.
Sired by Barathea and has 8/47 17% SR with a ROI of 22% for this distance. Thats an interesting angle in Novice or Maiden races combined with the EMR rating from dataform could be very useful stats for those races. Finding good Flat runners who ran over distance of 1m-1m6f and then startin First time out over Hurdles. There could be many 20+ Odds Longshots from this! A very small play for these odds to me.
Thats it for today from my side now lets watch and good luck to all, loads of Booms.
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