My day, so to speak always starts the night before! Not so good for the social life but not as hectic now as it used to be.
As I basically Trade and lay independently I am looking for different things.
Tend to look at viable races for laying. Prefer jumps only as they are more productive for me.
Tend to tackle races under 3miles. Miss out selling hurdles and stick to middle classes.
Don't seem to do so well in Class 1/2 races and still haven't got to grips with the Irish yet!
I have always found the top three the best to lay as far as odds are concerned. All depends the lower the odds the better.
I tend to be quite cautious with Maidens and un-raced horses but if I feel it will lose I still lay.
So, the night before is basically picking the wheat from the chaff. I don't bother overly about who is riding. Obviously it is important and if AP on board he can get a not so good horse home so I am a bit selective usually. I am more interested in the horse, the going and its ability to handle the going and not get home!
I am then usually to tired to do any more in the evening.
I do as I am looking check the trade bets. Those are horses where I feel the price will drop and the price getting matched on the lay before running or soon after.
This is easy to find by looking how the horse has been progressing and moving and shaking in the three previous races. It may not win but the price will come in.
So, never greedy. if I back at 6 I lay off at 3.8/4 roughly speaking. The higher the odds the more it need to move in to get a decent profit. With faves and second faves not so much for a good profit.
Greening up is what is important. The few times I have tried to catch a lay low I have missed out.
In the morning I check all the races again. Horses, going, any early changes or late ones come to that. Then after trotting into town for a coffee and to read the paper I come home and make the final decision as to what I am laying, backing . Don't have to worry about the trades as I have already done those the night before.
Looking at backs, trades and lays especially in the same races give me a very good idea of what might win or lose. If I have decided on way or another if might highlight another horse and that gives me extra ew bets for sure.
I like Stats and find documenting everything is very helpful. I just wish I could use Excel better than I do.
I hope I haven't waffled on too much.... TGLL
4 comments:
thanks for the piece - its about time we gave revealed your name and picture - have posted to your wall ref the "I like Stats and find documenting everything is very helpful. I just wish I could use Excel better than I do." let me know what you think!
The Girl likes EVERTRGUNG thta U do :_P)
Martin
PLEASE tell me your name TGLL - email me it if you are bashful to mdmurray@hotmail.co.uk
Moi...Bashful......nah!
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