Combustible Lady 3.7
Seedless 4.2
Aines Delight 5.4
Illysantachristina 8.2
Am I Blue 11
Daraz Rose 16.5
Bright Quest 15.5
An interesting contest here and I decide to lay here in this set up. We have Am I Blue a pure front runner, that raced against some good animals the 3 last time outs in HH3 and a good HH4 race. Trys to make everything from the front but finished a bit weakly and found always some animals with more finish power. This horse will generate a decent to fast pace today I guess.
Having another possible Front Runner with Daraz Rose which has its only win with Made All style. And having another 2 runners with Illysantachristina and Seedless runner who track leaders. This race could be something for a strong finsisher that gets driven out. Aines Delight
has now its 3rd race within 18 days a very short period. Raced LTO in a very high class race in Wincanton over 2 miles, which was dominated by Front Runner Celestial Halo who made a terrific pace alone, Aines Delight despite having no chance with the winner showed in the end after an exhausting pace a real good stamina finishing 2nd and the 3f more today could suit. Showed already on high class level that it has stamina despite a fast pace. Today faces weaker animals, but there is a question if these 2 races costed to much energy and the horse is exhausted. Spring form was similar racing 4 races over 2m in Wincanton in a short period of time, so I guess it will have energy left. Combustible Lady raced LTO against a weaker sort than Aines Delight, but got a decent pace and was driven out in the end finishing strongly. Todays set up could bring the Lady in a similar position, so its another candidate for me. The uphill finish lets me think from my eye, that its not totally suited to a climbing uphill.
Seedless is my Lay Selection here for several reasons:
Won LTO comfortably in a weak Hcp Hurdle which was run at a slow pace, is tracking leaders and had something in hand, because the pace was slow. The race before in an even weaker Novice Hurdles the pace was bit more fast and the horse found just a 4th place in the end.
Today faces 1st time a good pace and better animals with more stamina. Trainer has absolutely no Course winner and they changed the jockey to AP Lane who has 0-0-2 with this horse. Has too much weigh, races against classier horses Aines Delight, Am I Blue and similar horses,who are more suited for this set up today. Head to Head beaten horse IllySantachristina gets -8 lbs and showed better stamina in the race in the end. Never won uphill 0-0-4!
I will stay just with the Lay here, as I see several stamina candidates for today my favourites are Aines Delight, Illysantachristina, Combustible Lady, Daraz Rose for the win today.
Taunton 13.40 2m1f HH4
Dormhouse when is close up late and gets driven is a chance to me and Dancewiththedevil who has late finish stamina better than any of these. Poor odds though for both! Bothe are stron finisher and Dormhouse is a bridle horse so I try to grab some higher odds inrunning.
Result:
2nd Dancewiththedevil
4th Dormhouse
Taunton 13.10 HH5 3m
really poor animals from what I see nothing special, worthwhile is here a very small bet win and place on the outsider Tarabela at odds of 11. Has a 233 days off after fell in a race when the horse looked fresh and capable of more. Won Novice Hcp Chase Class 4 before in Towcester over 2m6f, looked effortlessly and had stamina. Today there are really dodgepots in the race with 2 horses over 10 years old. To me worth the risk, that after injury or fall down and long break in this field. I will wtach the betting and bet before the off...
Taunton 14.10 2m 110y G-F Chase 4 Beginners Chase
Hes Our Lad 1.92 BSP is a bit short here and a Lay for me. Its a small field and watching the videos of the runners I have to admit, that Hes Our Lads performances on Hurdles didnt knock me off my knees . From my view is not the best jumper, as it jumps very low, so possible difficulties over the big fences and the finish was not spectacular against in my view not the best animals. Has two opponents here, one is Falcon Island, which i expect to make a Made All ride today in this small field. First time in a small field and has the class in this today to make all from the front. Beat Grandadshorse over Hurdles and close to Topolski a horse which drives out in the end, both very good animals. LTo first time out over fences after a 195 days off, thats the reason why I strike this performance off out of fitness reasons, I speculate, that its targeted for today as a single frontrunner. Jumped okay for first time out actually, made few slight mistakes and was ridden very cautiously.Cantabilly looked LTO very akwardly I m not sure if can come back to form after the fell in Taunton over the chase. Is in Top Form a strong finisher, actually better suited to 2m2f+ but showed in the race when he fell a really strong performance. Nevertheless LTO the horse looked really bad, made strange movements during the race and tailed off, but could be long layoff...
So all or nothing,
Back Falcon Island 3.7 BSP BoooooooooooooooooM laid back 1.19 Inrunning
Coverlay Hes our Lad 1,92 BSP
13 comments:
If your analysis is correct (and I have no reason to doubt it), the front runner is a definite back (before the race) and lay during the race. It's price will subside the longer it is in front - hedge after about 60 seconds (maybe 90). If you don't have software that allows you to hedge just download the FREE version of Bet Angel. You have my email - just mail me if you need instructions or whatever mate
Am I Blue is what we call a BTL - back to lay animal btw
Could be nice trading animal Am I Blue.
It would be just that as long as it is allowed to have a contested lead. Have you/are you sending those systems? The max file size for gmail is 25Mb, so you may have to send in groups....or of course, zip them - I'll go through them all and we'll make lots of money !!
I havent gone into sire stats yet, but I tracked down every course and found out, that there are no real great edges to be gained. Runners with the comment driven can be analysed into more detail as robert pointed out, there maybe some value finding horses with comment easily and backcheck for yourself with analysis, but other variables such as bhcp or bsP are pretty much valueless and give no real clue, runners that were beaten LTO > Fx.5.0 have weak stats
but actually the most profitable on the longterm are the easy againsttheherd ones, for example i have setted up a system adh>B-6 and must have been beaten LTo Fx.5.0 with Fsp upto 10/1 gives around a 90% Laystrikerate on All Weather with about 45 bets per month during winter and 30 per month during summer, but havent found much yet, which I can achieve with proper analysis, the CLC Cl- CL+ variables are useful for analysis, but you still need to look properly at the race to gain edges of 10% +
Don't worry about the sires. Could you send me what you have for the courses etc and I'll go through each one and send back profitable systems for you/us to make lots of money mate
Okay I can do it...
Hi Guys late on Parade am afraid - quite like the chances of J'hdare in the 1.40 to beat home Dormouse ready to run well with a layoff is a decent hold up horse for a Btl to get my eye in
cant win with the saddle round its ears!!!!
Beside the fire for Tizzard ! 178 dsr
This time I was lucky trading, backed Dance withthedevils 7.8 before the off and traded out 2.46 and backed Dormhouse 6.8 Inrunning and laid 2.07 :) very nice luck this time
Back Falcon Island 3.7 BSP
Cover lay Hes our Lad 1,92 BSP
well done Rade I did not pick this up - it was my forecast for the race - well called and well spelt out
In the the Taunton 15.10 I have to actually back Aines Delight was so strong LTO when on video, much better class actually. What do you thin robert?
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