Dormhouse at 28 BSP in the Warwick 1.05 2m HH4 race G-Firm is a nice chance at big odds today.
In todays race there is the hot fav Shallow Bay 2.6 BSP giving already lots ov Value to other runners. Favourite is trained by D Pipe. D Pipe has another horse in the race Southerness 40 BSP.
It will be interesting to see what pace set up the horse will be. Dormhouse is a course Winner on Heavy Ground a while back ago, which was a race tightly grouped moderate pace and Dormhouse held up close coming just right in the end. Jockey was Mr OJ Murphy like today. Looking at todays contenders, there are lots of Hold up horses in there and if the field arrives close at the last bend Dormhouse could well be in again. Raced LTO after a long break first time in a small field against horses he already beat like Saute and Chickle Mix and tailed off, but was looking fresh and okay the first half of the race. Today line up suits much more and the jockey change is a small pointer. To me these odds of 28 are very attractive today and will play also for the place here. Sire of Dormhouse is Medician which is interesting, as I run at the Moment in the Systemanalyser a system of Held Up Winners under 10/1 and looking inside i just saw for Medician a 3/4 SR.
1st BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! 28 BSP and 6.2 Place Odds
Easy Win for Dormhouse!
Chepstow 13.05 2m Hcp Hurdles Heavy
I will be opposing as a Lay Kateal here at 4.7 BSP simply for the reason its a Heavy Ground event and Kateal has 558 day off. Has won a Novice Hurdles with 10-07, made poor effort in a Class 5 Hcp Hurdles carrying 11-01 weight and has today a 11-07 on Heavy ground!Has very negative statistical stats against.I see that it runs well after a long break and maybe targeted for this here today as had a win as a lead on G-S in Taunton after a long layoff, but this was a very weak Novice Hurdles and today facing much tougher opposition and the lottery of heavy ground. We will see how the betting market reacts late was punted to small amounts from 12,0 down to 4.6 midday put the big money move still has to come so I see it as clear Lay! As a very small bet I will have as a The Clyda Rover at BSP of 40 and Place odds of 6.8 for 4 places a horse which is 206 days off the track before always held up runs and tailed off or never on terms except of a good 2nd in Ireland before on Heavy Ground. Sire Moonax seems to have a real tendency too Heavy Ground and Sam Thomas is booked today.So I will try my luck with a really small bet on it.
Kateal heavily gambled made all this was for sure a race were i shouldnt get in I saw the danger of Fontrunning on Heavy and I still laid. Lesson learned.
2 comments:
well called on your winner - hat trick country coming up -- Dormouse bred from Medicean who is more of an AW sire had a very decent heavy ground record DORMOUSE, a previous C&D winner, had been beaten 69l on his seasonal debut at Fakenham (A totally unsuitable track!)fairly recently, but that effort must have been needed, as he came into contention going strongly and kept on well once getting to the lead. This goes to prove he doesn´t need ease in the ground to win, as two of his previous three victories came in heavy ground.
well called indeed
The less said of the lay on Kateal the better!
formerly with the Alners,(who targeted Chepstow) had been dropped 9lb during her absence from the track. Clearly fully tuned up for this return, she made all the running and found plenty to shrug off the runner-up. The handicapper will have noticed this but she may still be able to defy a rise.
hard luck on that one mate - Nick Williams yard is noted for getting its punts home and money to that amount was a big warning ---
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