The grade 1 Jnwine.com Champion Chase takes place at Down Royal on Saturday, 5th November, at 2.20 and is the highlight of the national hunt season for the Northern Irish track. It is run over 3 miles and has been won by some very useful types since 2000, including Kauto Star in 2008 & 2010. The race was abandoned in 2005 following a bomb scare.
Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings (2000-2010):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-1-3
7yo: 0-2-10
8yo: 4-3-17
9yo: 1-1-15
10yo: 4-1-11
11yo+: 0-3-8
8 and 10 year olds have the best record having won 8 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 44% of the runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 on last completed start
6 of 10 winners were having their first run over fences that season (4 exceptions ran in Munster National last time)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was 2nd on only start over 3M+ & other had won over 2M 6F and never tackled further)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception was More Than A Stronll, who had won the Grade A Munster National)
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 chase (exception not run in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners were third, fourth or fifth season chasers (exception was Kauto Star winning it a second time last year)
Other Races
Highest placed Cheltenham Gold Cup finisher: 13242U121 (3-3-9)
Morson Group H'cap Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 15 (1-0-2)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 223 (0-2-3)
Leopardstown H'cap Chase winner (Rare Bob): 53 (0-1-2)
Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 3 (0-0-1)
Fort Leney Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 344 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 1402F
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing P31F
4 of 10 winners ran in the Munster National last time, finishing 1125
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing U27
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing P11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 16
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-2-5) has gained 3 wins & 2 seconds from 5 runners.
Henry De Bromhead (0-1-1) and Tom Taaffe (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher in this.
Willie Mullins (0-0-4) won the first running of the race in 1999 with Florida Pearl but his last 4 runners have all been unplaced.
British-trained runners (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10, including the last 4 renewals of this race.
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 7) were sent off 7/1 or shorter
More Than A Stroll’s win at 20/1 in 2002 was the only major shock in the last 10 runnings.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the 10 running of this but show a level stakes loss of 1.49.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10
- Having first run over fences this season
- Finished 1st or 2nd on last completed start
- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Won over 3M+
- Third, fourth or fifth season chaser
- Ran in 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup, Lexus or Aintree Bowl
I invite you to analyse it and comment on your choices based on the VFb
Bob
3 comments:
Alright Bob, I will have a go tonight and analyse these two races.
On all known form, Sizing Europe comes out well on top - also, this horse luvs the heavy ground - okay its a 9 year old so goeas againsy the trend and the distance is a worry. Goes well after a lay off and is a great price!
Forgot to add - Sizing Europe was 2nd in this last year to the great Kauto Star - enough said!
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