The Paddypower.com Cork Grand National 061111 at 2.15

The Paddypower.com Cork Grand National takes places on Sunday 6th November. It’s a 3M 4F Grade B Handicap Chase on soft ground, so it could be a real slog this year. Last year’s winner, Streets Of Gold, is looking to become the first horse to win the race more than once.

Age

5yo: 0-1-2

6yo: 3-6-15

7yo: 3-7-29

8yo: 2-4-30

9yo: 2-1-34

10yo: 0-2-29

11yo+: 0-1-9

Horses aged 5 to 8: 8-18-76

Horses aged 9+: 2-4-62

Horses aged 6 or 7 do particularly well, having won 6 of the last 10 and filled 19 of 32 places from less 32% of the total runners.

Weight

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 4-9-37

Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 6-13-101

Horses carrying 11-0+ have proportionally a much better record, having won 4 of the last 10 from approximately 27% of the total runners.

Top Weight: FP144P49P3P (1-2-11)

Official Ratings

Horses officially rated 120 or more: 6-7-36

Horses officially rated 119 or below: 4-15-102

Horses officially rated 120+ have won 6 of the last 10 from approximately 26% of the runners.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on one of their last two starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days

8 of 10 winners had won 1 or 2 chases (2 others won 3 & 4 chases)

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or fewer handicap chases

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had not won a chase worth more than 12K

8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd in a 3M+ chase)

10 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers

0 of 10 winners had previously run in the race

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Streets Of Gold): 4P (0-0-2)

Porterstown H'cap Chase winner (Droim Toll): P05 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing P4

2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power H'cap Chaser, finishing F0

Trainers

Noel Meade (1-4-11) trained the winner in 2007 and 5 of his 11 runners have made the frame in the period.

Tom Nagle Jnr (1-1-5) saddled the winner in 2008 and also a short head 2nd in 2007.

Christy Roche’s (1-0-1) only runner in past 10 years, Streets Of Gold, won it in 2010 and may try to repeat the feat this year.

James Mangan (0-1-2) and Robert Tyner (0-1-4) have each saddled one placed finisher since 2001.

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below & came from the first 3 in the betting

The highest priced winner in the last 10 years has been 12/1 and the race is generally won by one of the market principals.

Favourites (4-3-10) have a decent record having won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 6.00.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 8

·         Finished in first 2 in one of last two starts

·         Ran in past 35 days

·         Officially rated 120+

·         2nd or 3rd season chaser

·         Won 1 to 4 times over fences

·         Won no more than 2 handicap chases

·         Never won a chase worth more than 12K

·         Having first run in this race

·         Won over 2M 7F+

·         Trained by Noel Meade or Tom Nagle

·         Priced 7/1 or below

The current Favourite is the 7yr old Smoking Aces ( gelding by Old Vic) hasnt won a chase much less shown anything over 3m

The horse i favour is Indifference Curve (gelding by Bob back will love the ground) 2wins over fences both under the 12g ceiling  interesting fact is that this horse served in up to Tharawaat who is a very good animal and Tharawaat was ridden by D N Russell - who rides Indifference Curve today




 Result - Winning over a much shorter trip at Galway two weeks ago was probably the bonus, this was the day for THE BISHOP LOONEY and he duly delivered. Always travelling well while tucked away on the inner by Tom Doyle, it looked as though the runner-up was going to have too many gears for him but the rider of the winner had a fair bit up his sleeve and he found plenty from the final fence. He may have another good handicap in him and he´s confirmed himself as being very versatile as to trip. It was a likeable display from a classy horse at his best. 

Another Palm was given the kid-gloves treatment by Carberry for most of the way, who had him in a good position while jumping and travelling well. In the end he didn´t find half as much as what he threatened from the final fence having got his head in front. It was more a case of him being slightly outstayed as much as anything but overall there was little to find fault with. 

Switched off in mid-division, Indifference Curve crept closer under Russell approaching the straight and was in a good position from which to challenge coming to the second last. He just didn´t appear to be good enough on the day but one would wonder about whether he had the reserves of stamina required.