The Totesport.com November Handicap takes place at Doncaster today 6th November. It is a class 2 handicap open to 3yos and older, run over 1M 4F. It usually marks the end of the flat season in Great Britain.Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-8-53
4yo: 4-13-82
5yo: 2-5-42
6yo+: 0-4-44
3 and 4 year olds have a combined record of 8-21-135
Horses aged 5 older have a combined record of 2-9-86
Weights
No very strong trends here but in recent years higher weights have done better with 6 of the last 7 winners carrying 8-10 or more.
Top Weight: 000066005709 (0-0-12)
Official Ratings
The last 7 winners of this race have been officially rated 89 to 99:
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
9 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap last time out
8 of 10 winners had their last run between 14 and 42 days ago
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last start
7 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 3 starts (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in 1 of their last 2 outings)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a class 2 or 3 handicap
5 of 10 (5 of last 6) had run in no more than 9 handicaps
Trainers
Brian Ellison (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 10 years and saddled a 40/1 shot to be 3rd in 2008.
Roger Charlton (1-0-1), John Gosden (1-0-3) and Reg Hollinstead (1-0-3) are the only other 3 trainers with entrants that have won the race since 2000.
Tim Easterby (0-2-4) and Mark Johnston (0-2-8) have both saddled a couple of horses to be placed and James Fanshawe’s (0-1-1) only runner in the past decade was 3rd in 2002.
Draw (excludes 2006, when race run at Windsor)
Horses drawn 11 or lower (2-16-99)
Horses drawn 12 or higher (7-11-102)
Horses drawn higher have an edge with 7 of the last 9 (including the last 4) being drawn 12 or above.
Price
No strong trends based on prices for this race.
This is a terrible race for favourites (0-2-12) with no winner in the last 10 years and only 2 of 12 making the frame.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 3 or 4
- Officially rated 89 to 99
- Carrying 8-10+
- Finished in the first 4 last time out
- Finished 1st or 2nd posted highest RPR in one of last 2 starts
- Won a class 2 or 3 handicap
- Run in less than 10 handicaps
- Won over 1M 2F+
- Drawn 12 or higher
- Trained by Brian Ellison (runs Lethal Glaze 24s at time of posting 4yr old drawn 24 loves galloping tracks 26 dsr)--has also got Palomar 8yr old drawn red10
Conclusion Lethal Glaze holds the best blues for the race and ticks a lot of the boxes
This is a really good race to have a fancy and just because the older animals have a poorish record that does not exclude them as a betting medium - I put Up La Vecchia Scuola for a place in the Cesarewitch and she did just that - she has all the stats for a big run today under Mr Fallon has been in the form of a rising profile horse just right for this race has only run this distance once and won well loves a galloping track and Fallon has won on here before - she has crept under the radar as far as i am concerned - achieved her best Rp rating last time stamina and able to put in a late sped rating - no matter which page Vfb she comes within the top 5/6 animals
these two dutched for me and despite the favourite having a poor record - Hughes is riding and i will not be laying this one!
good luck with your selection
Bob
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Result ----1m4f, Class 2, £62,310.00
1 Times Up 14/1 - 4yr old drawn 9 carrying 8st 3lbs 2nd last time out Dunlop and Dane Oniel(top track jockey today)
2 The Betchworth Kid 12/1
3 Simenon 12/1
4 Classic Vintage 25/1
2 The Betchworth Kid 12/1
3 Simenon 12/1
4 Classic Vintage 25/1
NR: Pendragon (USA)
22 ran Distances: 1¾l, nk, 1¼l
TIME 2m 32.62s (slow by 1.12s)
TIME 2m 32.62s (slow by 1.12s)
Jockey: Dane O'Neill
Trainer: J L Dunlop
Trainer: J L Dunlop
toteswingers:1&2:£60.30, 1&3:£75.00, 2&3:£43.80 WIN £18.60 PL £3.70, £2.50, £4.00, £5.60
2 comments:
Good work Bob, here is my tuppence worth:-
Of the 2 Alan king runners, I prefer Salden Licht to the tough stayer The Betchworth Kid, they both go in the ground but Salden Licht's Course & Distance form just gives him the edge of the two. Senate is a big danger judging by his C&D defeat of Times Up in September but my money will be carried by WILLING FOE, he is a Course winner and has also won at the trip. His defeat of Times Up @ HQ in September was impressive and I think there is more to come. The handicapper has only raised him 5lb for that & I think he is still ahead of his mark. It is a tough test for any horse and the ground is a slight worry but I'm prepared to take a chance on the Godolphin runner currently @ 7.8 on BF, that is a huge price.
yep its the dark horse in the race and looked hard at it - dont like the draw and though has improved massively with each run going from class 5 to class two and this time of the year for a three year old with improving profile can be a brilliant pointer and it ticks a lot of boxes in the trends for sure highest win prize money before today was only 9k so has to improve again but that's not impossible - good luck on this one mate - the more i look at it the stronger its chances and now my book is green will have some with you
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