The Breeders cup Classic Saturday 6th November BobT

10.45 Gmt  Saturday The Breeders Cup Classic is the most valuable horse race run in the United States each year and considered by many to be the most prestigious horse race run in the world. Raven’s Pass became the first British winner of the race in 2008, the first time the Classic was run on a synthetic pro-ride surface. Last year Zenyatta became the first ever mare to win the race and she is attempting to do so again this year, though on the more traditional dirt surface at Churchill Downs. All eyes will be on her as she bids to retain her crown and extend her unbeaten career record to 20. The American superstar made history last year when she became the first mare to win the $5 million event. Key - Blue Positive Red Negative Purple Place

Trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 3yo: 3-8-45  4yo: 4-9-44 5yo: 3-1-21 6yo+: 0-2-10

Horses aged 3 or 4 have won 7 of the last 10 and have filled 11 of the 12 places in the past 4 years. All three 3yo winners had won a grade 1 on one of last two starts.

No horse aged above 5 has ever won the race.

Gender  Only 2 mares have run in the race in the past decade. Azeri finished 5th in 2004 and Zenyatta won the race last year. 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F (exception was a British-trained winner, who had never run over further than a mile)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) won last time out

8 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 (both exceptions had won a grade 2)

7 of 10 winners had their last run in the past 30 days (3 exceptions had won the Woodward Stakes or Whitney Handicap last time out)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Zenyatta): 7134 (1-1-4) (now 6 yrs old)

Woodward Stakes (Quality Road): 511374 (2-1-6) 4 yr old

Whitney Handicap winner (Blame): 52217 (1-2-5) 4 yr old

Preakness winner (Lookin At Lucky): 8921 (1-1-4) 3 yr old

Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Haynesfield): 484002144 (1-1-9) 4 yr old

Haskell Invitational Handicap winner (Lookin At Lucky): 86 (0-0-2) 3 yr old

3 of 10 winners ran in the Woodward Stakes, finishing 311

3 of 10 winners ran in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 146

3 of 10 winners ran in the Goodwood Stakes, finishing 131

2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitney Handicap, finishing 21

5 of 10 winners ran in either the Goodwood or Woodward Stakes last time

Trainers

 John Shirreffs (Zenyatta ) (1-1-4)  trained the winner and a placed finisher in the past 10 runnings.

Steve Asmussen Haynsfield  (1-0-3)  won the race once in the last 10 years.

Record of European-trained runners: 1-4-18 (only winner came on Pro-Ride, record on dirt is 0-2-13)

Price

8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from the first 5 in the betting & were priced below 10/1

Favourites (1-3-10) have a very poor record having only won 1 of the last 10 running’s, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- By a stallion that raced in North America

- Aged 3 or 4

- Won last time out

- Ran in past 30 days (or won Woodward or Whitney last time out)

- Won a grade/group 1

- Won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F

- Ran in the Santa Anita Derby, Goodwood and/or Woodward Stakes

- Trained by  J Shirreffs (Zenyatta ) or Steve Asmussen (Haynsfield)

 So are you going to oppose the mare?  I propose to lay her at these odds simply because she is well under value. She is a freak( in the nicest way) bred from Street Cry she is the only really successful from this breeding and at 6 yrs old there must be doubts despite her record. Her running style impressed last year – was completely outpaced in the early stages but simply bounded home past horses at full stretch – it was unbelievable the first time – makes it unbelievable this time

The current price of the 4 yr old Haynsfield attracts me he breezed home beating Blame last time out on dirt - coasting home unchallenged and has more to give having won 6 of her 8 races. The front runner in this field who is in the peak of life running 35 days ago in the key race Jockey Club Gold Cup and ridden by its regular Pilot trained by Steve Asmussen well drawn in 3 box and should have the run of the race 12/1 looks overpriced

 Joker in the pack has to be Looking at Lucky on its win in the Preakness and a Derby its wide draw is not that good but a very good 3 yr old that ticks a lot of boxes
--------------------------------------------------


 Result -- the trends for 6 yr old's stood up but woow what a smashing mare Zenyatta  is is  to get so far behind and still run that close was heartbreaking for connections - had layed it big but  cant help feeling she was one really hard luck loser -- a brilliant race