The Race that Stops a Nation', the Melbourne Cup, takes place at Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday of November (2nd). As usual there will be a European raiding party heading over to try to return home with the Cup and the only European trainer to achieve that feat, Dermot Weld, looks likely to run Profound Beauty.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 3-9-70
5yo: 4-8-67
6yo: 2-7-53
7yo: 1-3-27
8yo+: 0-2-8
No huge bias on age but horses aged 4 or 5 have won 7 of the last 9 and the two exceptions were both Makybe Diva winning it as a 6yo and 7yo.
Weights (in kilos)
Horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-3-12
Horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 3-9-49
Horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 5-13-123
Horses carrying 50.5 or less: 1-5-43
If we just focus on more recent times, in the last 5 years: Horses carrying 53.0 or more: 4-9-50
Horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-6-63
Recent/Past Form - 10 of 10 winners ran in a graded race in the last 17 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in a grade 1
10 of 10 winners had won a graded race
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (both exceptions were trained outside of Aus&NZ)
6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1
6 of 10 winners had won at the track (3 of 4 exceptions were having first course start)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Shocking): 117 (2-0-3)
Lexus Stakes winner: 1500003961 (2-1-10)
Geelong Cup winner: 9410292 (1-3-7)
Turnbull Stakes winner (Zipping): 410 (1-1-3)
Brisbane Cup winner (Crossthestart): 20601 (1-1-5)
Caulfield Cup winner (Descarado): 140087 (1-1-6)
Cox Plate winner: 1 (1-0-1)
Memsie Stakes winner (So You Think): 1 (1-0-1)
Mackinnon Stakes winner: 10 (1-0-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 14230
4 of 10 winners ran in the Turnbull Stakes, finishing 4710
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 410
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cox Plate, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in the Mackinnon Stakes, finishing 10
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Brisbane Cup, finishing 41
Trainers
Lee Freedman (2-0-4) twice won the race with Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005.
Dermot Weld (1-2-6) is still the only European trainer to have won the race (‘93&’02). In the past decade he has saddled the winner and 2 places from 6 runners. All 6 of his runners have finished in the top half.
Michael Moroney (1-2-8) has saddled a winner and 2 placed runners in the past 10 years.
Mark Kavanagh (1-0-2) trained Shocking to win the race in 2009 and is attempting to win it with him again this year.
Bart Cummings (1-0-11) has won the race a record 12 times, most recently in 2008. He will likely have multiple runners again this year.
Tony Vasil’s (0-2-2) only 2 runners finished 3rd and 4th in 2004. Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-10) has had 3 placed finishers in the last 10 years, including the runner-up last year. Luca Cumani (0-2-4) has had the runner-up in this race in 2 of the last 3 years and Danny O’Brien has saddled Master O’Reilly to be placed in past 2 renewals.
Record of British-trained runners: 0-7-30
Record of Irish-trained runners: 1-3-13
Draw
Horses drawn 1-7: 2-11-70
Horses drawn 8-14: 6-12-70
Horses drawn 15+: 2-7-88
Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 last year as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre.
The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position.
In the past 7 years 13 of the 14 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn between stalls 7 and 14.
However 3 of the last 4 winners have been price 17/1, 16/1 and 40/1, so not a particularly strong trends race PRICEWISE
Favourites (2-3-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 runnings (both Makybe Diva), giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.
Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up in 8th to 16th place at the halfway point.
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 or 5
- Carrying 53.0 kilos or more
- Ran in a graded race in the last 17 days
- Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August
- Won a graded race (preferably a grade 1)
- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1
- Won over 2400m or further
- Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
- Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
- Ran in Caufield Cup, Turnbull and/or Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
- Likes to be held up
- Drawn 7 to 14
- Trained by Lee Freedman, Dermot Weld or Michael Moroney
5 comments:
atr verdict - VERDICT
The race revolves around one horse, So You Think. If he stays this first attempt at two miles then he will win. However, he will be in unknown territory after 10f and his normal run style is not one that lends itself to conserving from the rear. Descarado comes into the race on a roll having won the Caulfield Cup and running a solid second to So You Think in the Mackinnon on Saturday. Last year’s winner, Shocking, again has a moderate barrier and 14lb more to shoulder. But this is the strongest challenge yet from Europe and if So You Think fails then the door is open. Holberg is hard to fault for the UK from a reasonable barrier, whilst Luca Cumani - so narrowly touched off twice before - has a strong hand with Manighar and 2008 second Bauer who is better than his bare form suggests. This is a race that is always a puzzle and the view is taken that So You Think will run out of stamina leaving the way for AMERICAINE to give France her first success in the race. Descarado can prove best of the home runners, while Holberg may continue the run of near misses for Godolphin from 10. Bauer is expected to run a massive race for the luckless Cumani from an ideal barrier 2 with the dour-staying Harris Tweed following on.
The 2miles will take some getting in the soft ground forecast and Racing Victoria officials and vets re-examined Melbourne Cup runners Holberg and Bauer at the Werribee International Quarantine Centre on Monday morning and reported that the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Holberg was suitable for racing having recovered from a bruised hoof. However, the vets were not entirely happy with Bauer and announced that they will re-examine the horse's near-fore hoof at 8.45am Melbourne time before a final decision is made on his participation.Trainer Luca Cumani, who had been confident at the weekend that Bauer would run, said on Monday morning: "Bauer had a sore heel on Thursday evening after working very well that morning.
Ok am probably posting this to myself after diner monday - will refer you to my Post for the Irish St Leger (posted 9 Oct 10) - will be backing my lil darlin Profound Beauty Travels really well, will handle any mud but likely to be pushed wide from 22 and could lack that final kick in the run to the line. Still a chance, though, and her trainer Dermot Weld has won this twice before and knows exactly what is required so respected.
am on at the current 32s for the win and 8.6 for the place (had to transfer money to my Australian wallet to do it!
wont be awake at 4am but this is a race to savour - come on my lil beauty
good luck robert i hope it wins for you colin
4:00 - Emirates Melbourne Cup (Group 1) (Handicap) (3yo+) (Turf)
Full result 2m, £2,097,222.22
1 Americain 12/1
2 Maluckyday 8/1
3 So You Think 2/1F
4 Zipping 25/1
hope you followed the atr ADVICE!
Post a Comment