Got busy today with my new Lay system and have now got an improved data sheet to help me finalise a "Least Likely Loser" formula once I get a few weeks results data, it should also be able to give the "Most Likely Loser" for Laying horses - it was relatively easy to do - it's really just the reverse of my Win system so it should be as successful - I just need worthwhile results data in the format I've created to be able to put the numbers in.
| Time | Course | Q's | Name(1) | M1 | Name(2) | M2 |
| 13.35 | EXET | - | MR HUDSON(IRE) | 30700 | GEORGE NYMPTON(IRE) | 27800 |
| 13.45 | CATT | - | DELANEY'S DREAM(GB) | 45300 | CARAMELLA BROWNIE(GB) | 31000 |
| 14.05 | EXET | - | DARE ME(IRE) | 51200 | EDDIE BOY(GB) | 26400 |
| 14.15 | CATT | 1 | TASFEYA(GB) | 40800 | GRAND DUCHY(GB) | 37500 |
| 14.25 | KEMP | 1 | SPRING GREEN(GB) | 42700 | AJJAADD(USA) | 26100 |
| 14.35 | EXET | 1 | SOMERSBY(IRE) | 36600 | TCHICO POLOS(FR) | 30500 |
| 14.45 | CATT | 1 | AVONVALLEY(GB) | 47900 | ATLANTIC BEACH(GB) | 36300 |
| 14.55 | KEMP | 1 | LADY LAM(GB) | 32900 | CARR HALL(IRE) | 26600 |
| 15.05 | EXET | 1 | ROCK NOIR(FR) | 32600 | QOZAK(FR) | 24300 |
| 15.15 | CATT | - | ASTRAL FLOWER(GB) | 29500 | GAY MIRAGE(GER) | 26000 |
| 15.25 | KEMP | 1 | OTTOMAN EMPIRE(FR) | 42700 | MAFEKING(UAE) | 31500 |
| 15.35 | EXET | 1 | SWING BILL(FR) | 44700 | VAMIZI(IRE) | 20500 |
| 15.45 | CATT | 1 | TRANS SONIC(GB) | 40100 | CARA'S REQUEST(AUS) | 38400 |
| 15.55 | KEMP | - | ASTERISK(GB) | 29100 | HANDSOME KING(GB) | 26100 |
| 16.05 | EXET | 1 | FIVE STAR WILSHAM(IRE) | 23600 | DAWN AT SEA(GB) | 23300 |
| 16.15 | CATT | 1 | AFFINITY(GB) | 26600 | PUY D'ARNAC(FR) | 20000 |
| 16.25 | KEMP | 1 | SWISS CROSS(GB) | 29600 | SUTTON VENY(IRE) | 27800 |
| 16.35 | EXET | - | DE FORGOTTEN MAN(IRE) | 32800 | OSCAR PAPA(GB) | 28400 |
| 16.55 | KEMP | 1 | HARTING HILL(GB) | 44800 | CHIEF EXEC(GB) | 33000 |
11 comments:
nice lil boom booms - John!
the last race in your list was a hands and heels Aw and have to ask if you had that condition in your calcs John - had to go through the comments in running at the last minute to look for a horse that stays on last furlong - saw that Dinner Date had won a hands and heels this track - it won off this mark recording a 1lb + Dha and was blinkered first time today - put my winnings on it Good Old VFB !
your strike rate very good today well done
As I've said before I'm really impressed with Macroman and haven't taken advantage of his advice yet as all the racing is during my school teaching hours - those pesky kids ;-) (although I'm looking forward to the evening and weekend meets to test some of Macroman's wisdom and tray an save up for the VFB). Is the Macroman here to stay on this blog?
Between him, Nathan, TGLL, Carole and of course Bob T this blog is a wealth of information and a real eye opener. My only regret is that it wasn't here three months ago when my interest in Horse Racing began properly. Role on the weekend!
P.S. As there has been a lot of interest on this site from around the world Bob, will you remember your early fans when you are world famous and have your own slot on ATR? :-)
Bob - I napped Harting Hill and considered the conditions, HH was best on Going but DD had CDG in his favour - I just went with the numbers & HH was way up there against the others. I can't win 'em all..........
Please note - I run this data, save it, post on the blog then rush out, my daily Nap on VFB is generally a quick pick at the last minute.
nope I agree all was saying is the number alone are suspect - we always have this discussion - the horse you selected by numbers alone then have to be looked at in the context of the race and hands and heels has to be a suspect race that cannot be judged on past performances UNLESS they contain the race conditions - a horse that HAS to have its bottom given love taps to go forwards will not win this type of race no matter what the numbers say!
Numbers are always a guide ANALYSIS is needed as a MUST!
the discussion goes on - I accept the premise but Cd winner was not enough to put DD ahead - its the race conditions that put it ahead
Beware Numbers ALONE! they steer you into false predictions and cost.--- one day I will convince you but it wont be soon I guess
HI Jonathan,
thank you for your very kind comments about the blog - love them all - welcome aboard
will you Email me or go to my facebook page and leave a message so I can contact you? We are looking for a new angle on posting to the blog that you just might be interested in
cheers and thanks again
if you prefer you can email me at roberttaylorvfbmark@blogger.com
Bob - easy to justify the winner after the event - I stick my neck out declaring which will win based on my numbers - I have already said it's wise to look further at my MLW's - my numbers aren't the final choice for me just a shortlist that happens to work pretty well on it's own, where's your daily shortlist ahead of the day?
John - I am happy to take up any challenge but that's not what the blog is about - your a better short list man and the numbers system speaks for itself -Horses and short lists work for you not for me - we pick our selections in different manner - I do put my selections up for Big Races based on the same sort of criteria as you am not comfortable with long range race forecasting - look at today's races - biggest prize race is at Thurles @only £15grand - the rest of the day cards start with 2at7K one@6k 2@5k 2@4.5K down to £1.3K the form for such races is just too hit and miss with animals largely known as dodge-pots (enigmatic) or completely unknowns. Form is just not trustworthy during these fag end for the flat and awakening NH season If I have a fancy it depends on ground changes - I am not sure what you mean about posting after the event I post before the event usually 10 mins before and anyone who is on the facebook page will endorse that. I am sorry that you feel anything I have commented on your selections has been taken as criticism it was never intended as such. I fully understand the constraints you are under without betfair or facebook radio and wall and welcome each and every posting you make.
The detail you put together is outstanding and widely read and admired
Fascinating exchange.......I do know that one of my most purple periods was when JohnC first started circulating his data a couple of years ago.....I looked for the biggest defference between mlw and 2nd mlw and then referred to vfb for a qualitative affirmation of the quantitative. My records show a success rate of about 52%. Yes many of the winners were short odds but if I could gaurantee a 75% return on my cash I'd take it.
So you are both right! Consistent returns need teh production of a shortlist, anything that makes this easier is to be applauded - vfb & JohnC's systems are imo unbeatable....but the final placing of a bet is subjective otherwise we could write software that would simply syphon cash out of Betfair......well we can dream!
here is an email that I got today re Macroman posting and have to say its a reflection that most will share "I know Macroman (John) said he hasn't got time to post his selections any more which is a real shame"
Good luck with selling the art John and make sure you get back when time permits -- Bob
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